The renowned ZiPS projection system is back for its 21st consecutive year, providing a comprehensive set of forecasts for the upcoming season. To delve deeper into the specifics of this year’s projections, you can refer to the detailed MLB glossary entry and this year’s overview. The team sequences are randomly determined, and the next team under the spotlight is the Washington Nationals.
Evaluating Washington Nationals’ Batters for 2025
Despite having a below-average offensive performance in 2024, the Washington Nationals have several promising young players emerging in their lineup. Notably, James Wood and Dylan Crews are both projected to be three-win players, while CJ Abrams is equally poised to make a significant impact. At just 24 years old, Abrams, the oldest of the trio, represents a solid foundation for the team’s future. ZiPS identifies all three players as having substantial superstar potential, particularly focusing on Wood and Crews. While Luis García Jr. may see a slight regression from his 2024 output, he is still anticipated to be a reliable contributor. If Andrés Chaparro can secure a position at third base, ZiPS is optimistic about his potential value, although concerns linger regarding his offensive capabilities at first base or designated hitter.
As we move beyond these five players, the excitement diminishes considerably. One player to watch in 2025 is Jacob Young. While ZiPS takes a cautious stance on Young due to the unpredictability of defensive statistics, his promising performance in the majors could push his WAR projection comfortably above two wins if he maintains his defensive prowess.
Another point of concern is the recent decline in the projection for former top prospect Keibert Ruiz. His performance last year was disappointing, partly attributed to losing 20 pounds due to influenza in the spring. His struggles reflect exacerbated versions of the issues he faced in 2022 and 2023. Although Ruiz is a proficient contact hitter, he resembles a player like David Fletcher, whose contact skills may impede his success. He often swings at poor pitches, leading to unproductive at-bats filled with weak grounders and pop-ups. With a healthier season ahead, Ruiz might increase his exit velocity, but unless he improves his plate discipline, his potential remains capped.
Moreover, with Wood and Crews now in the major leagues, ZiPS expresses skepticism about the Nationals’ ability to cultivate strong hitters moving forward. The projection for Brady House is underwhelming, and Steamer is even less optimistic about his bat. Additionally, Juan Yepez does not appear to be a viable short-term solution at first base. Except for catcher Drew Millas, all Nationals batters projected to contribute five or more WAR over the next five seasons are expected to be on the Opening Day roster, with Millas being seen as a low-upside backup. If the Nationals fail to develop hitters effectively, they will need to invest more heavily in enhancing their lineup depth.
Analyzing Washington Nationals’ Pitching Staff for 2025
The outlook for MacKenzie Gore is relatively stable, yet ZiPS displays a general ambivalence toward the rest of the pitching rotation. Among the group, DJ Herz stands out as the most intriguing option. He possesses the ability to generate numerous strikeouts, and his limited major league performance has been encouraging. However, ZiPS remains uncertain about whether he has successfully minimized his walk rate from the minors. Herz carries the highest potential upside after Gore but also presents significant risks, making him a player of interest for a rebuilding team. Conversely, both Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker are viewed more as reliable inning-eaters than pitchers with substantial upside. The situation surrounding Cade Cavalli appears risky, and beyond him, ZiPS’s projections are decidedly lukewarm across the board.
While ZiPS may exhibit indifference regarding the rotation, it holds firm opinions regarding the bullpen, albeit in a negative light. The Nationals have a history of struggling with ineffective bullpens, even winning a World Series with only a couple of reliable relievers. Generally, for rebuilding teams, the bullpen tends to be the last area to stabilize. ZiPS acknowledges Derek Law and Robert Garcia as competent pieces for a functional bullpen, yet most of the remaining relievers are expected to perform below replacement level. The lack of promising names suggests that unless ZiPS’s projections are significantly off, the Nationals’ next effective relief pitchers are likely not currently within the organization and may need to be converted from former starters.
During the first half of 2024, the Nationals hovered around the fringes of the NL Wild Card race, maintaining a record close to .500 and hinting at the possibility of a playoff push if conditions aligned perfectly. However, their record of 32-47 from July onward extinguished those hopes, culminating in a final tally of 71-91, accurately reflecting their position in the league. Without major alterations, Washington is likely to make modest improvements, potentially finishing the season with a win total in the mid-to-high 70s. Although this would represent progress, it is unlikely to suffice for a return to postseason contention.
Ballpark graphic courtesy of Eephus League. Depth charts are constructed based on the sources listed here. The size of player names represents their projected playing time on the depth chart.
Comprehensive Batters – Standard Statistics
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