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Aston Villa vs Manchester United Prediction: Premier League Match Preview

Aston Villa vs Manchester United Prediction: Premier League Match Preview

We expect Sunday’s Premier League video game at Villa Park with our Aston Villa vs Manchester United forecast and sneak peek. Will Unai Emery’s guys deal another blow to under-fire Erik ten Hag?


Aston Villa vs Manchester United Stats: The Key Insights

  • The Opta supercomputer makes Aston Villa favourites for Sunday’s video game, providing a 42% win possibility to Manchester United’s 33.2%.
  • Man Utd have actually won 40 Premier League video games versus Villa, with just the Red Devils themselves beating a challenger regularly in the competitors’s history (41 versus Everton).
  • Jhon Durán averages an objective every 43 minutes at Villa Park in the Premier League, the second-best ratio by a gamer at a single place (250+ minutes played there), behind Luis Suárez at Carrow Road (an objective every 38 minutes).

Manchester United remain in desperate requirement of a win when they handle Aston Villa on Sunday, with the pressure overdid Erik ten Hag after recently’s sorry 3-0 loss in the house to Tottenham.

United have actually lost 3 of their 6 Premier League components this season, winning simply two times – versus Southampton and Fulham – while they have actually lost their last 2 home matches in the leading flight by an aggregate rating of 6-0, versus Liverpool and Spurs.

Their tally of 7 points is their joint-fewest after 6 video games of any Premier League season (2 wins, one draw, 3 losses), having actually made similar starts under David Moyes in 2013-14 and Ole Gunnar Solskjær in 2020-21.

They now deal with another of the league’s leading groups when they handle Villa, who are fresh from their midweek UEFA Champions League victory over Bayern Munich and unbeaten in their last 4 league matches, winning 3 and drawing one.

Unai Emery’s side have actually taken 13 points from their opening 6 Premier League matches (4 wins, one draw, one defeat), making this their finest start to a season considering that 2008-09 under Martin O’Neill (likewise 13 points).

Making Villa Park a fortress has actually been crucial to their success under the Spaniard, who has actually managed a return of 74 home points considering that his very first video game in charge in November 2022 – a 3-1 win over Man Utd. Only Manchester City (85), Liverpool (84) and Arsenal (81) have actually made more home points because period.

Among all Villa supervisors to organize 5 or more home top-flight matches, just European Cup-winning manager Tony Barton (70%, won 37/53) has a much better home win portion than Emery (66%, won 23/35).

One gamer in specific who has actually enjoyed his current getaways in Birmingham is Jhon Durán, who beat Manuel Neuer with an amazing strike to seal a well-known Villa success on Wednesday.

All 5 of his objectives in all competitors this season have actually originated from the bench, with his 4 league strikes originating from simply 2.1 anticipated objectives (xG). He has actually likewise netted 4 league objectives in his last 4 league looks at Villa Park, all as an alternative.

The 20-year-old averages an objective every 43 minutes at Villa Park in the competitors, the second-best ratio by a gamer at a single place (250+ minutes played there), behind Luis Suárez at Carrow Road (an objective every 38 minutes).

Overall, Durán is balancing an objective every 39 minutes this season in the league – by contrast, 10-goal Erling Haaland averages one every 54 minutes.

The reality he has yet to make a routine beginning area is down to the type of fellow forward Ollie Watkins, who has actually been associated with 55 objectives in 67 Premier League looks considering that Emery signed up with Villa (36 objectives, 19 helps), with just Haaland (65) and Mohamed Salah (60) scoring or helping more objectives because time. Watkins is seeking to score in 4 video games in a row in the competitors for the very first time considering that April 2023, having actually netted versus Everton, Wolves and Ipswich Town in current weeks.

Duran and Watkins will be anticipating some happiness versus United’s permeable defence. The Red Devils have actually lost 8 Premier League matches by a margin of 3 or more objectives under Ten Hag. Since the start of 2022-23, the only present Premier League supervisors to suffer more beats by such a margin are Gary O’Neil and Sean Dyche (9 each).

Despite yielding just 8 objectives, United have actually an anticipated objectives versus (xGA) figure of 11.04 up until now in the Premier League this season – that is the fifth-worst overall in the department, lower than just the 3 promoted clubs and Brentford.

That is in spite of United permitting simply 74 shots, which ranks ninth in the leading flight. However, United’s typical per-shot xGA is 0.14, which is the second-worst in the league, after Brighton (0.17).

Last time out versus Spurs, United – who were lowered to 10 guys when Bruno Fernandes was sent late in the very first half (that red card has actually considering that been rescinded) – were sculpted open time and time once again.

Spurs produced an xG of 4.59 – the third-highest United have actually permitted a Premier League challenger considering that records started in 2009. Only versus Arsenal in December 2017 (a 3-1 win) and versus Man City in October 2011 (a remarkable 6-1 loss at Old Trafford), have United quit a higher quality of opportunities in a Premier League match.

United likewise saw their challengers have 9 huge opportunities – just in 5 previous video games in Premier League history has a group had more huge opportunities in one video game (Man City vs Watford 2019-20, Man Utd vs Sunderland 2012-13, Arsenal vs Fulham 2018-19, Arsenal vs Stoke City 2015-16, Man City vs Crystal Palace 2017-18 – all 10).

While Thursday’s 3-3 draw at Porto in the Europa League ended in a morale-boosting late equaliser from alternative Harry Maguire, Ten Hag’s primary focus for Sunday should be discovering a steady protective formula. If Matthijs de Ligt and Lisandro Martínez are left separated versus Villa’s pacy assailants, the sound surrounding the Dutchman’s future might be ratcheted up a lot more.

Aston Villa vs Manchester United Head-to-Head

Despite the hosts entering into this as favourites, it deserves keeping in mind that Man Utd have a fantastic record versus the Villans.

United have actually won 40 Premier League video games versus Villa, with just the Red Devils themselves beating a challenger regularly in the competitors’s history (41 versus Everton).

Villa have actually won simply among their last 25 Premier League home video games versus United (8 draws, 16 losses), with that success being available in Emery’s very first video game in charge of the club in November 2022 (3-1).

Aston Villa vs Manchester United Prediction

Given Villa’s great type and United’s depressing start to 2024-25, it is not a surprise to see the Opta supercomputer side with the hosts.

Villa are the favourites with a 42.0% win possibility, while United triumphed in 33.2% of the design’s simulations. The probability of a draw is 24.8%.

In our general season forecasts, Villa are offered a 17.7% possibility of reproducing last season’s top-four surface to protect a Champions League berth. However, United are appointed simply a 1.2% possibility of doing so.

Aston Villa vs Manchester United Predicted Lineups

Aston Villa predicted lineup v Man Utd
Man Utd predicted lineup v Aston Villa

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are an international group ranking system that designates a capability rating to over 13,000 domestic football groups on a scale in between absolutely no and 100, where absolutely no is the worst-ranked group worldwide and 100 is the very best group worldwide.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.


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