The positive takeaway for the Baltimore Orioles is that they managed to secure a victory in the opening game of their crucial three-game series against the top-ranked New York Yankees on Monday night. However, the downside is that this win has only marginally improved their overall record to 11-17, placing them with one of the worst standings in all of Major League Baseball. As of Tuesday morning, the Orioles find themselves at the bottom of the AL East division, and with approximately one-fifth of the season already completed, it becomes increasingly difficult to regard this subpar start as a mere anomaly.

The Orioles’ areas of struggle are glaringly evident and can be attributed to various factors. The starting rotation is currently performing poorly, with a combined 5.62 ERA and 5.14 FIP, alongside a disappointing average of just 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings. These statistics firmly position Baltimore near the bottom of league rankings for pitching effectiveness. Additionally, the defensive performance has not been up to par either, and the offensive output has significantly dwindled over the last two weeks following a promising start.

While it’s important to remember that the MLB season extends well beyond April, the Orioles still have time to correct their course. However, the pressing question remains: do they possess the necessary talent to do so? To assess their potential, I analyzed the current Orioles depth chart and estimated the projected WAR (Wins Above Replacement) based on expected playing time. This analysis utilized both the preseason ZiPS WAR and the latest updates from overnight evaluations. Let’s focus first on the offensive aspect of the team.

In summary, the Orioles offense has experienced a decline of approximately three wins in its projected performance for the remainder of the season. Although no individual player’s performance in April has significantly altered their long-term outlook, it is noteworthy that these projections have generally decreased across the board. This trend directly correlates with the team’s overall dip in projected offensive production. Out of the 19 players evaluated, only two—Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn—have seen their forecasts improve in the last month, indicating a concerning trend for the team.

A silver lining for the Orioles is that despite the downgraded projections for their hitters, their expected total 25 WAR would still place them as having the sixth-best group of position players in Major League Baseball. Although ZiPS has lowered its expectations for Baltimore’s batters since March, the decrease is relative. Even so, losing three projected wins is significant, especially given that the team is already starting from a disadvantaged position. It may be premature to conclude that the offense is fundamentally broken, but a sense of urgency should drive a more aggressive approach to player decisions. It is increasingly clear that Coby Mayo, currently excelling against Triple-A pitchers, possesses more upside than both Ramón Laureano and Ryan Mountcastle. While there may be risks involved in promoting Mayo, how can a team struggling to score justify not bringing him up?

Next, let’s delve into the pitching situation.

The projections for the pitching staff have seen less fluctuation compared to those for hitting and fielding, primarily because the bullpen, boasting a 3.77 FIP, has outperformed the starting rotation. However, it is concerning that a team with an ERA exceeding 5.00 faces only a slight decline in projected pitching effectiveness. These revised forecasts suggest that this group of pitchers, in its current form, would remain a liability even if they performed up to pre-season expectations. Ideally, it would be beneficial if Dean Kremer could keep the ball in the park and if Charlie Morton could limit walks, but even with these improvements, the Orioles would still project to have one of the weakest pitching staffs among playoff contenders.

While it’s challenging to pinpoint a single reason for the lineup’s struggles, it is clear that the organization must take responsibility for the underperformance of its pitching staff. The current state reflects a failure in strategic design rather than player execution. Prior to last season, the Orioles confronted a similar lack of elite pitching and rectified it temporarily by acquiring Corbin Burnes. However, following Burnes’ departure to free agency, the team has stood idly by as top-tier starters were signed elsewhere. Instead of securing a replacement for Burnes, Baltimore has effectively created a makeshift rotation. While teams like the Yankees signed Max Fried and the Red Sox brought in Garrett Crochet, the Orioles opted for the aging Morton, Sugano, and later Kyle Gibson. Unfortunately, piecing together several number four starters does not equate to forming an ace-level pitching staff.

Despite their patchwork rotation, the Orioles remain a viable contender, but as demonstrated in recent weeks, their margin for error is alarmingly slim. They cannot rely solely on their offense to compensate for a deficient starting rotation, and it is too late to engage in the free-agent market to pursue Fried, Blake Snell, or to re-sign Burnes. Current trade possibilities are also limited. It may be too late to negotiate a trade for Dylan Cease with the Padres, and Sandy Alcantara has exhibited struggles since his return from Tommy John surgery. While Baltimore could potentially acquire the 2022 NL Cy Young winner at a lower cost, such a trade would undoubtedly carry substantial risks. In summary, immediate solutions are unlikely to come from outside the organization, at least until more teams exit the playoff race.

At the beginning of the season, ZiPS assigned the Orioles a 30% probability of winning the AL East and a 63% likelihood of reaching the postseason. These probabilities have since plummeted to just 5% and 19%, respectively. While this season is not completely lost at this stage, time is undeniably not working in Baltimore’s favor.

The Roman consul Appius Claudius Caecus famously stated, Faber est suae quisque fortunae, which translates to “every man is the architect of his own fortune.” While the Orioles have faced some unfortunate circumstances this season, the core of their struggles has largely been a result of their own decisions and strategies forged in the Camden Yards crucible.