Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat: Insights from 5/5/25

2:01	Ben Clemens: Greetings, everybody! I’m back from an interesting journey to Milwaukee where I saw a thrilling Brewers vs. Cubs video game. Unfortunately, it did not have the drama I had actually expected, and I could not discover a single notable occasion to go over.

2:01	Slumps: How much does the option to let gamers overcome downturns or bench them (or send them down, like in Jake Burger’s case) depend on analytics versus impulse? Who eventually makes these choices—supervisors or front workplace workers?

2:01	Ben Clemens: It mainly depends upon what you specify as ‘data’ in this context.

2:01	Ben Clemens: However, it’s absolutely a mix of both information and impulse.

2:02	Ben Clemens: Analytics alone will not catch whether a gamer is feeling dissuaded and might take advantage of a psychological reset.

2:02	Ben Clemens: Yet, data may show some patterns recommending the gamer is underperforming compared to their normal abilities.

2:03	Ben Clemens: I think the front workplace and supervisors need to work together on these choices, which method is extremely smart.

2:03

Some kinda Mook: If the White Sox are securely versus having Devers play very first base, what would be your perfect option? Should we put a very first base glove on Anthony and promote him? Should we move Campbell to very first base momentarily and raise Mayer to play 2nd base? Surely, the option can’t simply be to depend on Romy.

2:03	Ben Clemens: Honestly, I would simply promote Anthony.

2:03	Ben Clemens: I’m perplexed by the unwillingness to position Devers there, however I’m not privy to the complete context; there might be a legitimate factor behind it.

2:03	Nate: A couple of weeks earlier, I asked you if you believed Maikel Garcia had actually lastly figured something out. Your action was basically “prove it, Maikel.” Has he showed any development?

2:03	Ben Clemens: Not to my fulfillment.

2:03	David Stearns: According to Andy Martino from SNY, Baty is being phoned to take Winker’s location due to injury. Should we anticipate Baty to carry out much better in his 70th chance?

2:03	Ben Clemens: I imply, there’s no factor to think that, right?

2:04	Oaktown Blues: Here’s an enjoyable stat to note: Justin Sterner didn’t permit a single run throughout Spring Training and has yet to permit one in the routine season, amounting to 28.2 scoreless innings (12 in Spring, 16.2 in the routine season). This makes him a quality waiver wire pickup.

2:04	Ben Clemens: I definitely take pleasure in seeing scoreless streaks.

2:04	Ben Clemens: I am absolutely watching on every pitcher with a noteworthy streak like that.

2:04	Ben Clemens: I even spoke with the all-time scoreless innings record holder, JP Feyereisen, when!

2:05

Pythagoras of Cascadia: Regarding Tatis Jr. taking home today: if there are 2 outs and one runner on 3rd, shouldn’t the runner attempt to steal home if he estimates he has a better chance of success than the current batter’s expected batting average? For instance, if you think you could make it home 30% of the time, should not you go for it?

2:05	Ben Clemens: Not exactly, because the batter could hit a home run.

2:05	Ben Clemens: Plus, it depends on the game situation.

2:05	Ben Clemens: Like, if you’re down by two runs in the eighth inning, you shouldn’t effort that.

2:06	Ben Clemens: Yet, in the first inning with a 50% opportunity of success, sure, go for it!

2:06	Greg: There’s been talk about the strike zone appearing to shrink this year – or at least the shadow zone. Does it seem like that’s the case, or is this just a talking point for early in the season?

2:06	Ben Clemens: There will definitely be a part two to this discussion.

2:06	McGreevy: When will St. Louis truly commit to a rebuild and give me a spot in the rotation?

2:06	Ben Clemens: After yesterday’s game, perhaps they just might be starting now?

2:06	ronaldo monday: Isn’t moving Devers to first base immediately the only logical option?

2:06	Ben Clemens: That seems to be the only sensible choice to me.

2:07	Oddball Herrera: It seems like at the very least, Boston should be acting like they’re preparing Devers for first base, just to avoid appearing desperate if they’re pursuing a trade.

2:07	tree: Suppose you instruct a pitcher to simply throw strikes, as if no batter is present, and the sole goal is to get the ball into the strike zone. What percentage of the time do you think they succeed?

2:07	Ben Clemens: I haven’t examined this in a while, but my previous estimation was based on 3-0 counts for pitchers at bat.

2:07	Ben Clemens: It was around 70% success rate.

2:08	Ben Clemens: It might actually be slightly higher, as the types of pitchers who find themselves in 3-0 counts against opposing batters tend to be more erratic.

2:08	Mr 41: Broadcasters often assume that nearly all center fielders are above average defensively. Which team’s fans would be surprised to learn that their team lacks a top-15 defensive center fielder?

2:09	Ben Clemens: That’s a fantastic question.

2:10	Ben Clemens: I reviewed the data from the last three years to gain a broader understanding beyond just this year’s trends.

2:10	Ben Clemens: Based on that, I think I’ll point to the White Sox as a potential answer.

2:11	Ben Clemens: Robert hasn’t been very good defensively for some time now.

2:11	Ben Clemens: Nevertheless, he is still perceived as elite in that regard.

2:11	Bosoxforlife: In light of Casas’s injury—which is unfortunate for any player—could it paradoxically benefit the Red Sox moving forward? How will the team manage to keep Anthony, Mayer, or both down after this incident?

2:11	Ben Clemens: Dan is currently writing about this topic.

2:11	Ben Clemens: At the very least, the Red Sox are well-prepared to handle this unfortunate injury; they have more players they want to give playing time than available spots.

2:11	Justin: If we were to appoint Ben Clemens as the Pirates’ new general manager after letting go of Ben Cherington next week, what would be your initial moves? Would you focus on building for 2028, or aim to piece together a competitive roster for 2026? Or would your strategy be different altogether?

2:12	Ben Clemens: My target would be to aim for 2026.

2:12	Ben Clemens: Ideally, I would aim for 2025; however, it might be too late for that.

2:12	Ben Clemens: Given that you have Paul Skenes, how should you approach building the team?

2:12	Ben Clemens: I’m not claiming I would be successful at it.

2:12	Ben Clemens: However, that would certainly be my goal.

2:12	RAGBRAI: If we can reopen Alcatraz, can we also reopen the Polo Grounds?

2:12	Ben Clemens: Now that’s a political platform I’d support.

2:13	Gronch: This isn’t really a gambling question (yikes), but I noticed some odds showing Logan Webb as having the fifth-best chances for the NL Cy Young. That seems low given his track record and the start to his season. Who are you more confident in for the award, aside from Yamamoto and Skenes?

2:13	Ben Clemens: I agree with you. He would have been in my top five before the season began, and now we’ve seen that he has strikeout capability against left-handed batters.

2:14	Ben Clemens: Coupling that with Wheeler’s slow start and the lack of any standout performances, this odds line seems odd to me.

2:14	tree: Is there any reason why relievers can’t pitch a few innings and then have a starter come in to pitch for five or six innings?

2:14	Ben Clemens: Congratulations, you’ve just invented the opener strategy!

2:14	Ben Clemens: But yes, it can be effective.

2:14

Greg: My question is: If you become the next general manager, what will you do with this team? Half your budget is tied up in underwhelming extensions for Hayes, Reynolds, and Keller, while you have possibly the best young starting pitching core in baseball, but there are holes all over the roster and no hitting prospects to fill them, compounded by a lack of budget to address these issues. The situation appears bleak in Pittsburgh.

2:16	Ben Clemens: My strategy would involve trading from my prospect pool. I would be looking to move anyone who isn’t currently part of my starting lineup. I don’t see the Hayes contract as a problem; it’s $7 million, which is below market value even if he doesn’t become a star.

2:17	Ben Clemens: Finding competent hitters at non-demanding defensive positions isn’t too difficult. For instance, Mark Canha was available for nothing this year.

2:17	Ben Clemens: The Tommy Pham deal not working out? So what? That was a smart move, and I would aim to make more of those while also seeking trades with other teams for their players.

2:17	Ben Clemens: Why isn’t Nathaniel Lowe playing for the Pirates?

2:18	David: Why would anyone offer Patrick Corbin a contract?

2:18	Ben Clemens: Because he can provide innings, and sometimes pitchers unexpectedly regain their form.

2:19	Ben Clemens: He’s been valuable in terms of innings pitched for the Rangers this season!

2:19	Ben Clemens: He’s performed better than Jack Leiter has.

2:19	Ben Clemens: Will he maintain this level of performance? I can’t say for sure.

2:19	Ben Clemens: However, it’s important to note that what he has accomplished thus far isn’t without value.

2:19	Ben Clemens: If you had told me this was how Corbin’s first five starts would unfold, I would have been more inclined to sign him.

2:20	Bosoxforlife: What type of vetting process do other owners undergo before approving someone to purchase a franchise? It harms the game when individuals like Monfort and Nutting show no effort to win.

2:20	Ben Clemens: I hate to say it, but this could be seen as slander against Dick Monfort.

2:20	Ben Clemens: The Rockies do make an effort to win, which makes this situation even more perplexing.

2:20	Hello: What actions should the Giants take regarding their first base situation?

2:21	Ben Clemens: They ought to aggressively explore the trade market.

2:22	Ben Clemens: With their existing roster composition, I appreciate their approach. However, they can’t afford to give LaMonte much more opportunity.

2:22	Ben Clemens: The team’s overall success is masking his poor performance, but you must recognize that players sometimes decline.

2:23	Ben Clemens: I don’t believe the replacement is within the franchise unless you consider acquiring a different designated hitter and moving Flores. However, even that seems somewhat unexciting. Again, what about Nathaniel Lowe?

2:24	PokeyReese: For the 2025 season only, would you prefer Jacob Wilson or Arraez?

2:24	Ben Clemens: I would choose Jacob Wilson.

2:24	Ben Clemens: Assuming I have a gap in the middle infield, of course.

2:25	Ben Clemens: I don’t anticipate that he will out-perform Arraez, but I believe he will produce similarly while being more valuable defensively.

2:25	George: How would you rank Mark Lerner among owners you’d want your favorite team to have? His father made significant investments, but he and the family have certainly not followed suit.

2:25	Ben Clemens: I would rate him low, but I’m open to being persuaded that he could improve his standing.

2:27	Matt: Bryce Eldridge would like to have a word.

2:27	Ben Clemens: Let me rephrase my previous statement: I don’t believe the 2025 replacement is within the franchise.

2:27	Ben Clemens: However, that’s perfectly fine due to the fact that there are numerous short-term hitting options available.

2:27	Jed Hoyer: Can you provide an estimated market value for Kyle Tucker’s extension?

2:28	Ben Clemens: I don’t know, maybe around 12 years for $550 million? His value is definitely increasing as he continues to perform exceptionally.

2:29	Bill James Handbook: Hey Ben, I saw that Aaron Judge’s prospect report predicted a grade of 70 for both game and raw power. Would you go out on a limb and grade his power as an 80 now?

2:29	Ben Clemens: Looking back, we can say that Judge has changed the way we evaluate powerful hitters.

2:31	LB: Are you more (a) concerned about Elly’s decline in power so far or (b) encouraged by his incremental gains in plate discipline?

2:31	Ben Clemens: (b) because I don’t really believe in a decrease in power.

2:32	Ben Clemens: It appears more that he’s hitting too many ground balls rather than losing power.

2:32	Ben Clemens: His barrel rate and home run-to-fly ball ratio haven’t changed.

2:32	Ben Clemens: He’s still swinging hard.

2:32	Ben Clemens: I believe that the stable improvements he made are so significant that they outweigh what seems to me to be mostly bad luck.

2:32

Matt: The Athletics are in a promising position. What do you think will be the next pivotal move for this group? The backend of the bullpen looks strong, but I have concerns about the middle of the pen; Bleday seems to be the odd man out, and personally, I think this team is too good to have a low-tier defensive center fielder.

2:33	Ben Clemens: We’ve discussed a potential swap between Jacob Young and JJ Bleday at various points during this chat.

2:33	Ben Clemens: Honestly, that trade might make sense, with some value added to make it work.

2:34	Ben Clemens: They specifically need a solid defensive center fielder, in my opinion.

2:34	George: Considering the volatility of young pitchers, would you provide a larger extension to James Wood or Paul Skenes? Additionally, who’s the least significant position player you would extend for more than Skenes?

2:34	Ben Clemens: I would go with Skenes, simply because he’s the superior player.

2:34	Ben Clemens: If you could find 2 players of equal value, I would likely give the hitter the bigger contract. But Skenes is simply too good.

2:34	Max: Bregman is on track for over 7 fWAR. While he will likely level off, if he finishes north of 5.5, do you think he opts out?

2:34	Ben Clemens: I would say that’s likely.

2:36	Ben Clemens: I believe the most probable outcome is that he signs a new deal with Boston.

2:36	Ben Clemens: It seems like a great fit for many reasons.

2:36	Steve O: Do you think the Yankees would let Cody Bellinger’s opt-in hinder their pursuit of Kyle Tucker?

2:37	Ben Clemens: An extra $20 million won’t impact their willingness to offer someone a half-billion-dollar contract.

2:37	J: What can we expect from Carson Kelly at the plate moving forward? Obviously, he won’t maintain Barry Bonds’ level, but the strides he’s made in swing decisions and contact are so impressive that this can’t be just a fluke hot streak.

2:38	Ben Clemens: I actually like what ZiPS and Steamer have projected for him.

2:38	Ben Clemens: Essentially, they enhance his career plate discipline stats slightly (which makes sense to me).

2:39	Ben Clemens: They also project a slight increase in his power numbers (which is also reasonable).

2:39	Ben Clemens: Without going overboard, this could categorize him as an All-Star catcher.

2:40	Brad: Can Judge’s peak be compared to Bonds’ peak in any capacity?

2:40	GA Blood: Will Judge’s contract go down in history as the best free-agent deal ever?

2:40	Ben Clemens: I mean, isn’t it already part of that conversation?

2:40	Ben Clemens: Regarding the deal itself, I would have to say it’s the best deal in history at this moment.

2:41

Peak: So, barring another Dodger wall (and he will be playing there this year), Judge is essentially on track to have a Hall of Fame career (roughly 60 WAR is typically needed for a good case) within his prime years. Will teams draft with the intention of finding the next him, or realize he’s really distinctive?

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