The Kansas City Chiefs have achieved an impressive record of 9-1 following their recent victory over the Buffalo Bills, winning the game with a score of 30-21. This solid performance demonstrates the team’s resilience and skill as they continue to push through the 2024 NFL season.

With seven weeks remaining in the 2024 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs are gearing up for a challenging schedule. They will face the Carolina Panthers on the road, return home for two crucial division games against the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers, take on the Cleveland Browns in Ohio, host the Houston Texans, and conclude the season on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos. Each game is pivotal as they aim to secure their playoff positioning.

Let’s delve into the current playoff picture of the Chiefs. As we regularly do, we’ll utilize the New York Times playoff calculator to provide insights into what the future may hold for the team. More detailed information about how this playoff calculator operates is included at the end of the article.

Understanding the Kansas City Chiefs’ Current Playoff Picture

Currently, the Kansas City Chiefs have a remarkable over 99% chance of making the playoffs. They hold a 90% probability of clinching the AFC West division title (down from 97% two weeks ago), a 46% chance of securing a coveted single AFC bye (down from 82%), and a 10% probability of winning Super Bowl LIX (down from 19%). In the AFC, the Buffalo Bills currently have the highest odds of winning the Super Bowl at 16%, while in the NFC, the Detroit Lions lead with 24%.

The shifts in the playoff outlook for Kansas City are not solely due to their recent loss to the Bills; it’s also influenced by the victories of the Chargers, Broncos, Texans, and Steelers. These wins present a significant challenge as the competition heats up in the AFC.

On a positive note, the Kansas City Chiefs have the opportunity to face and potentially defeat all four of these teams before the playoffs commence, which could help secure valuable tiebreakers. Although they missed a chance to establish a commanding lead over the Bills for the No. 1 seed, the Chiefs still control their destiny; the Bills currently hold a 39% chance of making the playoffs.

Utilizing the playoff calculator, we can project the outcomes of any remaining games and observe how these predictions could impact the Chiefs’ playoff aspirations.

Key Strategies for the Chiefs to Secure Playoff Berth

At this point in the season, it’s premature to define a definitive scenario for the Chiefs to clinch their playoff spot. However, the likelihood of Kansas City missing the playoffs is virtually nonexistent. Consider this: even if the Chiefs were to lose their final seven games of the season, they would still possess a remarkable 70% chance of making it to the postseason. This statistic exemplifies the team’s solid foundation and the strength of their previous games.

Pathway for the Chiefs to Win the AFC West Division

If the Chiefs can secure victories in their next two games and the Chargers lose to either the Baltimore Ravens or the Atlanta Falcons within the upcoming weeks, it appears likely that Kansas City will clinch their ninth consecutive division title by defeating Los Angeles in Week 14. This would mark a significant achievement for the franchise and solidify their dominance in the AFC West.

How the Chiefs Can Achieve a First-Round Bye

The Kansas City Chiefs hold the reins to their own destiny. The team can secure the AFC’s top seed by winning their next seven games, which would culminate in a remarkable 16-1 record. Achieving this would not only guarantee a playoff spot but also represent the best regular-season record in the franchise’s history.

Additionally, the Chiefs could still secure the No. 1 seed by winning their next six matches, provided that the Bills endure at least one loss against the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, Lions, New England Patriots, or New York Jets. Such a scenario would allow Kansas City to rest key players during Week 18 against the Broncos.

Although the Chiefs may be less concerned about the Christmas Day matchup against Pittsburgh, this scenario would require both the Bills and Steelers to lose two games before then. It’s not far-fetched to envision the Bills faltering against the 49ers and Lions, while the Steelers face a tough schedule with four AFC North games, including matchups against the Bengals and Ravens, plus a game against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15.

Final Thoughts on the Chiefs’ Playoff Prospects

Despite the loss sustained on Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs remain in control of their playoff destiny. The road to the postseason appears almost guaranteed at this juncture. In the coming weeks, the AFC West title could be firmly within their grasp. However, until we observe some losses from the AFC’s top competitors, the Chiefs will have minimal margin for error when aiming for the top seed. Thus, their focus must remain on winning every remaining game.

Learn More About the New York Times Playoff Calculator

The calculator begins with an Elo rating (and betting market information) for each NFL team. This data is instrumental in determining the relative strengths of every team. These evaluations are subsequently utilized to estimate the likelihood that each team will win their remaining games. The remainder of the season is simulated thousands of times, and the results of these simulations provide us with the probabilities discussed in this article.