“Snakes Alive” encapsulated the Arizona Diamondbacks’ thrilling journey to the 2023 World Series. With a pivotal offseason ahead, the team is setting its sights high once again in one of Major League Baseball’s most competitive divisions.

Throughout the rich tapestry of Major League Baseball history, only three players named Corbin have ever worn a big league jersey. This unique distinction adds a layer of intrigue as the Arizona Diamondbacks rely on two of them – Burnes and Carroll – to spearhead their quest to return to the World Series in 2025.

In the arid expanse of Arizona, the Diamondbacks are banking on the talents of these two players. Corbin Carroll, the rookie sensation, played a significant role in propelling Arizona to an unexpected appearance in the 2023 World Series, thanks to his record-setting regular season. Standing at 5-foot-10, Carroll made history as the first player in Major League Baseball to achieve at least 30 doubles, 10 triples, 25 home runs, and 50 stolen bases in a single season. This remarkable feat not only secured him the unanimous NL Rookie of the Year title but also solidified his place in baseball history.

In a striking development, Corbin Burnes made headlines by signing a six-year, $210 million deal as a free agent this offseason, a move that sent shockwaves through the baseball community for two compelling reasons:

• 1. Many observers doubted the Diamondbacks would have the resources to secure an elite free agent in a competitive market.
• 2. Few predicted the D-backs would be a top choice for the starting pitcher coveted by every World Series contender.

A fun tidbit: The other Corbin – Martin – also pitched for the Diamondbacks, being part of the organization from July 2019 until April 2024. During his tenure, he appeared in 12 Major League games, finishing with a 7.28 ERA. His connection to the franchise extends to another surprising free-agent signing when the Diamondbacks offered starter Zack Greinke a six-year, $206.5 million contract starting in the 2016 season. Martin, a second-round pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, was included in the package that went from the Astros to the Diamondbacks when Greinke was traded to Houston in 2019.

Of course, Patrick Corbin was also part of the Diamondbacks’ rotation alongside Greinke from 2016 to 2018. However, the intent of this discussion isn’t to suggest that the franchise should consider rebranding itself to the Arizona Corbins. Yet, should the current Corbins lead the team to a World Series victory, it might not be as far-fetched as one might think. A World Series championship is certainly within reach.

Burnes joins a Diamondbacks starting rotation that has the potential to rank among the top five in Major League Baseball. Zac Gallen has consistently finished in the top five of the NL Cy Young voting in both 2022 and 2023, and he would have likely been a contender again in 2024 if not for spending a significant portion of June on the injured list. Following their impressive run to the Fall Classic in 2023, the Diamondbacks narrowly missed the playoffs, improving their win total from 84 to 89.

In his first complete season within the rotation, Brandon Pfaadt demonstrated promising signs of a breakout season on the horizon. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.61 was notably lower than his ERA of 4.71, and it even surpassed the performance of Shota Imanaga, who finished fifth in the Cy Young voting with a 3.72 FIP. Meanwhile, veteran pitchers Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Jordan Montgomery are poised to bounce back and prove that their injury-plagued past is behind them.

Burnes, a former Cy Young Award winner, brings a wealth of experience to the Diamondbacks. During his breakout season in 2021 with the Milwaukee Brewers, he showcased his electric pitching skills, striking out 234 batters over 167 innings. He achieved a remarkable 2.43 ERA and an impressive 1.63 FIP, allowing only seven home runs throughout the season. Burnes led the National League in strikeouts per nine innings (12.6) and boasted a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 6.88, solidifying his reputation as one of the premier pitchers in the league.

In terms of accumulated raw value (RV), which evaluates a pitcher’s ability to limit discipline, contact, and slugging in one metric, Burnes was the most valuable pitcher in Major League Baseball that season, registering a minus-54.1 RV (lower values indicate better performance for pitchers). This remarkable record has yet to be surpassed since that 2021 campaign.

To put this into perspective, the 2024 Cy Young winners recorded RV numbers of -36.6 (Tarik Skubal) and -32.7 (Chris Sale). Analyzing pitch performance, Burnes’ cutter had the best RV (-31.8) among all pitches in Major League Baseball; the only other pitches that performed better than -20 were the elite four-seam fastballs of Carlos Rodon and Zack Wheeler.

Heading into his age-30 season, Burnes may not possess the same electric velocity he once had, as evidenced by his whiff+ of 105 and strike+ of 103 in 2024 while pitching for the Orioles. Nonetheless, he remains one of the most dependable aces in the league, maintaining a similar formula for success that begins with his cut fastball. Initially, he relied on a four-seam fastball and a slider, which were often hit hard, but he introduced the cutter during the shortened 2020 season and made it his primary pitch during his 2021 Cy Young campaign.

Over the past four years, Burnes’ cutter has been recognized as the best in the league, based on raw value. In 2024, his cutter (-18.5 RV) ranked behind only sliders from Skubal (-25.5) and Sale (-23.8), as well as Hunter Greene’s four-seam fastball (-19.5).

That’s the essence of Burnes’ pitching prowess.

The Diamondbacks’ acquisition of Burnes is driven by their ambition to gain a competitive advantage in the fiercely contested NL West, particularly against the formidable Los Angeles Dodgers. The primary objective is not just to capture the division title but also to ensure they can compete effectively against the Dodgers’ potent lineup in the postseason.

Fascinatingly, the strategies Burnes will employ against future Hall of Famers Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts will be intriguing to observe. Ohtani has a lifetime batting average of .500 against Burnes, with three hits, including a home run, while Betts has managed three hits in nine at-bats, including a double.

Burnes typically utilizes his cutter and curveball against all batters. However, when facing left-handed hitters like Ohtani, he often leans on his changeup as his primary secondary pitch. Conversely, against right-handed hitters such as Betts, he tends to abandon the changeup, favoring sinkers and sliders, occasionally mixing in a sweeper.

For a clearer picture of his pitching performance, refer to his 2024 pitch totals from Opta’s database:

Turning the spotlight to Corbin Carroll, the Diamondbacks are optimistic about his potential resurgence in the 2025 season. After achieving an impressive slash line of .285/.362/.506 with a 133 OPS as a rookie, his 2024 season began poorly, with his batting average not crossing the .200 mark until June. Consequently, his overall performance declined to .231/.322/.428, resulting in a 107 OPS.

This significant drop in performance may appear alarming at first glance. However, when viewed through a broader lens, the situation may not be as dire as it seems.

Examining his year-to-year statistics in the Opta database reveals some intriguing similarities.

The statistics appear quite comparable, don’t they? It’s worth noting that Carroll’s raw value+ was closely aligned with two other rookie sensations from 2023 who also faced a perceived decline offensively in 2024. Julio Rodriguez recorded a value of 109, while Adley Rutschman finished at 108.

When comparing traditional statistics year-over-year, Carroll recorded 65 extra-base hits, 76 RBIs, and 116 runs scored in 2023, followed by 58, 74, and 121 in 2024. His strikeout percentage remained nearly identical, with figures of 19.4% in 2023 and 19.0% in 2024. Hard-hit percentages were also similar, at 41.4% and 40.9%, with ground ball to fly ball ratios of 0.78 and 0.79, respectively.

However, one noticeable difference lies in his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). In 2023, Carroll’s BABIP was an impressive .325, significantly above the MLB average of .297. In contrast, it dropped sharply to .256 in 2024, falling well below the MLB average of .291. This decline can partially be attributed to a stroke of bad luck.

Moreover, as many dedicated Diamondbacks fans are likely aware, Carroll experienced a higher rate of pop-ups in 2024. Only five players in the league had a higher pop-up percentage than Carroll’s 12.1%, which increased from 7.3% the previous year. For a hitter, few outcomes are as frustrating as a pop-up.

Indeed, “frustrating” aptly describes Carroll’s mindset throughout much of the 2024 season. A dedicated and hardworking player – one of the key reasons the Diamondbacks felt confident extending him with an eight-year, $111 million contract during the spring training of 2023, prior to his Rookie of the Year achievement – Carroll made adjustments to his swing mechanics during the season, striving to elevate the ball better for power.

The results of his hard work became evident. On July 13, just before the All-Star break, Carroll hit two home runs, and from that point onward, he showcased a remarkable .262/.355/.598 slash line, accumulating 19 home runs over the course of 66 games. Before that pivotal game, his performance had faltered, with a .210/.219/.316 slash line and only three home runs in 92 games.

With the return of Corbin to form, alongside the addition of Burnes, the Diamondbacks are looking at a promising path back to the postseason.

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