In breaking NFL news, quarterback Trevor Lawrence has officially signed a remarkable five-year, $275 million contract to remain with the Jacksonville Jaguars. This monumental agreement signifies a pivotal moment in the NFL landscape, underscoring the team’s commitment to their young star quarterback and his potential for future success.

Before the Lawrence extension, here are the top 15 quarterback contracts in the NFL, according to Over The Cap. These contracts highlight the evolving nature of quarterback compensation in the league and provide a context for understanding Lawrence’s significant new deal.

With this new contract, Lawrence finds himself tied with Joe Burrow for the highest quarterback contract in NFL history, both in total and average annual value. The guaranteed amount of $200 million only trails behind the contracts of Deshaun Watson and Burrow, highlighting the escalating financial stakes in the league.

Such a lucrative contract is not unexpected for a former No. 1 overall draft pick in today’s NFL landscape. However, the crucial question arises: Is Trevor Lawrence truly worth this staggering sum? How does he measure up as a quarterback in the league? After a challenging rookie year under the troubled regime of Urban Meyer, Lawrence experienced a resurgence in his second season, guiding the Jaguars to a 9-8 record and a playoff appearance, culminating in a dramatic comeback victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. However, his performance dipped again in 2023, as the Jaguars faltered, losing five of their last six games and failing to secure a playoff spot.

This concerning trend has led analysts at The 33rd Team to draw comparisons between Lawrence and Daniel Jones of the New York Giants, a comparison that many may find unfavorable.

(For clarity, it’s important to note that while Jones has made 48 starts, this does not account for his disappointing shortened 2023 season, nor does it include much of the second half of 2022, when he had some of his most impressive performances. Additionally, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns are not included in this analysis.)

Dan Pizzuta, a former writer for BBV and currently with The 33rd Team, has published a comprehensive analysis suggesting that Lawrence’s statistics may not reflect his true potential due to deficiencies elsewhere on the Jaguars’ roster, such as the quality of receivers and the offensive line. Pizzuta argues that in 2022, under head coach Doug Pederson, the Jaguars’ offensive scheme limited Lawrence to quick dropbacks and short passing plays, neglecting the deep shots that are vital to today’s high-scoring offenses. Although expectations were high for addressing these issues in 2023, persistent offensive line problems led Lawrence back to a shorter passing game, despite attempts at deeper throws. Pizzuta also points out that Lawrence was victimized by numerous dropped passes, further complicating his performance metrics. If these arguments sound familiar, they certainly resonate with many analysts and fans alike.

It begs the question: Is there a way to accurately quantify these factors impacting quarterback performance?

Fortunately, there is. Ben Baldwin from The Athletic has developed a method to analyze expected points added (EPA) statistics over the last two seasons, adjusting for variables such as the quality of pass defense faced, receiver drops, dropped interceptions, luck with interceptable passes (termed “turnover-worthy plays” by PFF), fumble recoveries, interception returns, and the caliber of defenses encountered. Baldwin’s approach focuses on the EPA attributed solely to the quarterback for expected yards after catch (YAC), meaning a short pass to a speedy receiver like Tyreek Hill is valued differently than a similar pass to a less explosive receiver. The following chart illustrates the rankings of NFL quarterbacks based on adjusted EPA per play, showcasing how external factors influence their effectiveness.

In Baldwin’s analysis, Lawrence, whose raw EPA per play of 0.09 over this period ranks him 14th, rises to 7th in the NFL in adjusted rankings, aligning with Pizzuta’s conclusions. Whether he’s worth $55 million per year remains to be seen, but this adjustment provides a clearer picture of his performance independent of his teammates’ influence.

Interestingly, Jones, whose raw EPA of 0.03 places him 23rd on this list, climbs to 13th when adjustments for uncontrollable factors are made. Coincidentally, Jones’ contract ranks 13th in the NFL in both average annual value and total value.

Lawrence certainly embodies the ideal prototype for a franchise quarterback: confident demeanor, national championship experience, flowing blonde locks, and the coveted No. 1 overall draft pick status that everyone anticipated. In contrast, Jones presents a starkly different image: somewhat unremarkable, resembling the kid who might get bullied (he really should have kept the beard), hailing from a lesser college program, and perceived as over-drafted at No. 6 by many analysts. However, the narratives of their professional journeys in the NFL are not as disparate as many presume. While differences exist and are valid, they are not as significant as one might think, with an adjusted EPA per play difference of merely 0.03. The most substantial distinction is that Lawrence has missed only one game due to injury, whereas Jones excelled in their sole matchup.

Yet, one quarterback is now earning $55 million annually while the other is making $40 million. One has a total guarantee of $200 million, while the other has a total of $104 million guaranteed.

Remember, this is merely an examination of the current landscape in the NFL.