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Dodgers Land Their Impact Starter in Jack Flaherty

Dodgers Land Their Impact Starter in Jack Flaherty

Gary A. Vasquez-U.S.A. TODAY Sports

Last week, when the Dodgers designated lefty starter James Paxton for task, basic supervisor Brandon Gomes mentioned the group targeting “an impact-type arm” ahead of the trade due date. Gomes and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman struck their target soon before the 6 p.m. ET due date on Tuesday, landing Tigers righty Jack Flaherty in exchange for a set of potential customers. Separately, the Dodgers likewise strengthened their outfield depth by obtaining Kevin Kiermaier from the Blue Jays for lefty Ryan Yarbrough.

For all the discuss the state-of-the-art beginners who might be moved before the due date, the most talked about ones besides Flaherty — the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal, the Giants’ Blake Snell, and the White Sox’s Garrett Crochet — all sat tight, making the Dodgers’ addition of the 28-year-old Flaherty feel that far more impactful. To obtain the Los Angeles native — who was traded on due date day for the 2nd year in a row, after being dealt from the Cardinals to the Orioles last August 1 — the Dodgers parted with 21-year-old catcher Thayron Liranzo and 24-year-old shortstop Trey Sweeney.

After years of injuries topped by a substandard project that consisted of the previously mentioned modification of address, Flaherty remains in the middle of his finest season in half a years. Because he’s avoided a number of turns due to injections of pain relievers (not cortisone) to deal with frequent lower neck and back pain (one on June 10, the 2nd on July 2) and after that had Monday’s turn scratched in anticipation of his being dealt, his 106.2 innings is 1.1 except the limit to receive the age title, however his numbers are outstanding. Among AL pitchers with a minimum of 100 innings, he ranks seventh with a 2.95 age and 6th with a 3.11 FIP. Among all AL pitchers, he’s connected for 11th with 2.5 WAR, and amongst the pitchers traded this month, he’s 2nd just to the more contact-oriented Erick Fedde (2.7). Flaherty’s numbers are a big enhancement from in 2015’s 4.96 age and 4.36 FIP in 144.1 innings. While setting up a 6.75 age post-trade, he was bumped from the Orioles’ rotation in mid-September and ended up the season in the bullpen.

The significant favorable for Flaherty’s 2023 season was his health. His 27 starts were his most in a season because 2019; he amounted to simply 32 from 2020–22 due to the pandemic-shortened season, an oblique stress, and frequent shoulder issues, which integrated to send him to the 60-day hurt list 3 times in that period. That much better health — and some post-trade enhancement of his fastball, albeit with his slider and curve falling back rather — assisted him web a one-year, $14 million offer from the Tigers, with another $1 million possible by means of efficiency benefits ($250,000 each for reaching 26 and 28 starts, $500,000 for reaching 30).

As I kept in mind when I signed in on Flaherty about 6 weeks back, the most unexpected element of his efficiency is his career-high 32% strikeout rate, 2nd just to Crochet amongst AL pitchers with 100 innings. It’s 2.1 portion points ahead of his previous individual finest, embeded in 2019, and 9.2 points ahead of in 2015’s mark, making it the majors’ greatest year-to-year dive:

Largest Increases in Strikeout Rate, 2023–24

Minimum 80 innings pitched in both 2023 and ’24. All data through July 29.

In addition to enhancing his strikeout rate, Flaherty is producing a 43% groundball rate, his greatest because his 2017 novice project. As I’ve kept in mind before, I’m a huge fan of that combination; a couple of years back, while discussing Luis Castillo, I took advantage of our then-new “Plus Stats” — particularly our league-indexed strikeout and groundball rates — to produce something called KGB+, a scrap stat that shines a light on pitchers who integrate strikeouts and groundballs. That’s usually a great technique for success, if not the only path there. Flaherty is presently seventh in the majors by that procedure:

KGB+ Leaders

Pitcher Team IP K%+ GB%+ AGE- FIP- KGB+
Garrett Crochet CHW 114.1 154 113 79 56 267
Paul Skenes PIT 80.2 151 116 46 66 267
Chris Sale ATL 117.1 148 112 65 58 260
Tyler Glasnow LAD 114.0 149 111 87 72 260
Tarik Skubal DET 130.0 133 114 58 62 247
Jack Flaherty DET 106.2 143 104 72 76 246
Sonny Gray STL 111.2 139 103 95 72 241
Framber Valdez HOU 110.1 96 145 85 88 241
Taj Bradley TBR 81.1 134 104 63 86 238
Max Fried ATL 108.0 98 136 74 89 234
Dylan Cease SDP 131.0 147 85 90 77 233
Tanner Houck BOS 129.0 97 134 65 70 231
José Soriano LAA 97.2 87 143 89 96 230
Ranger Suárez PHI 119.1 109 121 70 73 230
Nathan Eovaldi TEX 112.0 105 124 81 91 230

All data through July 29. Minimum 80 innings pitched. KGB+ = K%+ plus GB%+

Flaherty’s revival owes plenty to the offseason work he made with Tigers pitching coach Chris Fetter and assistant pitching coach Robin Lund, who assisted him tidy up his mechanics, enhancing his capability to duplicate his shipment by concentrating on his posterior gluteal muscles and hamstrings rather of his quadriceps. As he informed the Detroit Free Press’ Evan Petzold in May, “It’s allowed me to have a little bit better velo and stay behind the ball and be a little bit more true on my heater… and then be able to repeat my slider over and over and throw it a little bit harder. I can just feel the sharpness of it when it leaves my hand, which is something last year I didn’t really feel.”

Under the instructions of his brand-new coaches, Flaherty likewise changed the grip of his slider and dropped the cutter he tossed 9.1% of the time in 2015 in favor of more four-seamers and sliders. He’s likewise increased the typical speed of his four-seamer by 0.4 miles per hour (from 93.1 to 93.5) and of his slider by 0.6 miles per hour (from 84.2 to 84.8). He’s getting a bit more trip and more break on the fastball, however a bit less motion in both airplanes on the slider. Relative to in 2015, he’s reduced the wOBA versus his fastball by 68 points and versus his 2 breaking pitches by 111 points. He’s producing whiff rates of 38.9% by means of his slider and 44.0% with his knuckle curve, and he’s been far more reliable versus both lefties (a drop in wOBA from .372 to .264) and righties (from .337 to .279).

In pertaining to the Dodgers, Flaherty signs up with a rotation that’s in significant flux. Within the previous week, they’ve DFA’d and after that traded Paxton to the Red Sox, and triggered both Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw from the hurt list; the previous had actually missed out on 18 days due to reduce back tightness, while the latter hadn’t pitched because going through offseason shoulder surgical treatment. During that exact same week-long period, novices Gavin Stone (the personnel rescuer thanks to his 3.34 age and 3.82 FIP), Landon Knack, Justin Wrobleski, and River Ryan have actually all taken turns, however Knack has actually currently been optioned, and he won’t be the last one. The hope is that eventually in mid-August or later on, Yoshinobu Yamamoto can return from a rotator cuff stress that’s sidelined him because June 15, which Bobby Miller and/or Walker Buehler, both of whom were optioned after post-injury battles, can assist too. If you’re noticing that the Dodgers have depth for days, you’re right. Sorting out who will begin for them in a postseason series is among the primary jobs ahead for manger Dave Roberts.

All of that pitching made Yarbrough expendable, however because being gotten from the Royals a minimum of year’s due date, the soft-tossing 32-year-old southpaw had actually served the Dodgers fairly well in a multi-inning relief function; this year, he’s pitched to a 3.74 age and 5.15 FIP in 32 looks amounting to 67.1 innings. He’ll sign up with a Blue Jays team that has actually been removed for parts in the previous week. The group has actually traded practically whatever in Toronto that wasn’t pin down, consisting of starter Yusei Kikuchi, reducers Yimi García, Nate Pearson, and Trevor Richards, catcher Danny Jansen, very first baseman/DH Justin Turner, utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Kiermaier.

A four-time Gold Glove winner (and 2015 Platinum Glove winner), Kiermaier is now 34 years of ages and heading into the home stretch of his profession, as he revealed recently that he would retire at season’s end. He stays a remarkable protector; in simply 549.1 innings in center field, he’s collected 9 DRS (connected for 4th in the majors, one run behind his now-former colleague Daulton Varsho) and 8 FRV (connected for 5th). He’s clearly a much better protector than the Dodgers’ incumbent center fielder, novice Andy Pages (-8 DRS, -1.6 UZR, -1 FRV), however the 23-year-old Pages has actually struck a relatively robust .244/.297/.378 (92 wRC+), while Kiermaier has not strike a lick. His strikeout rate has actually increased to a career-high 30.4%, his xSLG has actually dropped to a Statcast-period low of .277, and his 53 wRC+ (.195/.236/.310) is the seventh least expensive amongst gamers with a minimum of 200 PA. He’ll need to fight for playing time in an outfield that might quickly be additional crowded by Tommy Edman, who was gotten from the Cardinals on Monday and who can likewise play center once he returns from a rehab task, though he’s most likely to be released in the center infield.

As for the 2 potential customers the Dodgers sent out to the Tigers, Liranzo is a 50-FV possibility who ranked 5th on the Dodgers’ upgraded list and 73rd on our upgraded Top 100 at the time of the trade, while Sweeney is a 40-FV possibility who ranked 24th on the Dodgers list. Playing at High-A Great Lakes, where he’s struck .220/.344/.356 (106 wRC+), the switch-hitting Liranzo — a 2021 finalizing out of the Dominican Republic, with a $30,000 perk — has actually divided his time in between capturing (44 video games), very first base (24 video games), and DH (6 video games). His future at catcher is dirty, as he’s got a below-average arm. In Liranzo’s possibility pill on The Board, Eric Longenhagen had this to state:

When he can really get a toss to the bag off, his Patrick Bailey-design sidearm release works ok, however he so typically mishandles or fumbles his exchange that he doesn’t offer himself an opportunity to get the runner. Liranzo mainly makes use of a standard crouch when getting and is a below-average and ball-blocker. Both those abilities are more tenable and within the variety of major league practicality than his arm, however at Liranzo’s size and age, it’s no warranty they’ll remain that method.

Despite that modest slash line, Longenhagen is more sanguine about the 6-foot-3, 195-pound Liranzo’s bat:

There is big switch-hitting power here — Liranzo struck 24 bombs in the Cal League, struck a ball 114 miles per hour, and had a 48% hard-hit rate in 2015. He can pinch hit power from the left side even when he isn’t taking his finest swing, and he’s dangerous from the best side despite the fact that he utilizes very conservative footwork, producing whatever with a shift in his weight and the strength of his hands. Liranzo doesn’t have terrific feel for the barrel, which is normal for a young a switch-hitter, not to mention among irregular size. His 65% contact rate is listed below the limit of any 2023 major league very first baseman… so there’s considerable Quad-A danger here if Liranzo can’t capture.

As for Sweeney, he was prepared by the Yankees out of Eastern Illinois University in 2021, as the 20th total choice, then dealt to the Dodgers in a lineup crunch-driven trade that sent out Jorbit Vivas and Victor González to New York. At Triple-A Oklahoma City, the 6-foot-3, 212-pound Sweeney has actually struck .255/.334/.427 with 13 homers and 16 takes; by means of Statcast, he’s produced a 90.6 miles per hour typical exit speed with a 7.7% barrel rate and a 44.3% hard-hit rate, with a lot of balls on the ground (46% rate) that all of it translates to simply a .356 xSLG. Sweeney’s finest tool is his 55-grade raw power, however his other tools grade out as 40s, with a prospective 45 for his video game power and 50 for his hit tool. In upgraded notes he offered me on Tuesday, here’s what Longenhagen composed:

Sweeney looks fine at brief. The Dodgers position him such that he hardly ever needs to make a play to his backhand, and he’s continuously moving from right to left towards very first base when he tosses, which he appears most comfy with. He appears like an ideal fit at shortstop in spite of his size. On offense, Sweeney’s bat course triggers his in-game power to soft-pedal. His front side is high through contact and he tends to reduce at the baseball. He’s going to produce video game power below his raw disallowing some type of swing modification. That will restrict his ceiling and most likely avoid Sweeney from being thought about a real daily alternative at brief, however he ought to be a second-division routine or excellent energy guy.

For a due date brief on effect relocations, the Dodgers made what perhaps stands as the greatest one, a minimum of from a pitching perspective. Healthy and reliable, Flaherty is an enormous upgrade on Paxton, and he may be the Dodgers’ second-best starter behind Glasnow heading into October unless Kershaw or Yamamoto can summon their pre-injury kind. To get him, the group parted with 2 gamers who likely have big league futures, consisting of among the couple of Top-100 potential customers traded this month in Liranzo. But the Dodgers’ system is especially deep at catcher, with 50-FV possibility Dalton Rushing at Double-A Tulsa and 45-FV possibility Diego Cartaya at Oklahoma City, and neither of them is going to supplant Will Smith anytime quickly. The Dodgers will barely miss out on these guys, especially if all of it settles with a champion.

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