The Cardinals endured Willson Contreras‘ first extended absence due to injury, going 24-16 while their catcher/designated hitter was sidelined for six weeks due to a fractured left forearm. Despite his loss, the ineffectiveness of cornerstones Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, and a host of other issues, they were still in contention for a playoff spot when the July 30 trade deadline approached — not in great shape, but with a roster worth augmenting for the stretch run. But by the time Contreras suffered a fractured middle finger on his right hand as a result of an errant Pablo López pitch on August 24, it was clear that this wouldn’t be the Cardinals’ year. They had actually currently shocked their lineup with a number of significant demotions, and by the end of the month, they let due date acquisition Tommy Pham leave through waivers.

The Cardinals aren’t the only group whose playoff hopes withered a long time in between the trade due date and Labor Day, simply the one that made one of the most sound on the deal wire. Based on the modifications in our Playoff Odds, here are the groups that suffered the steepest decreases from the close of play on July 29 (i.e., the day before the due date) through Monday:

As you can see from the table, not all of these scenarios are alike. The Mariners and Mets had approximately a coin-flip opportunity of making the playoffs since July 29, and the Red Sox’s chances weren’t much lower. The other groups were long shots to start with; they hadn’t surrendered yet, however things haven’t gone their method because, and by now their deaths have actually streamlined the playoff photo.

What follows here is a more detailed take a look at each of those scenarios, beginning with the bottom of the table.

Mets

The only group here with a winning record because the trade due date (18-14) — and hence more than a faint opportunity of making the playoffs — is one that figured to invest this season retooling following last summertime’s sell-off. With Kodai Senga shelved due to a shoulder pressure, and Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil amongst their regulars off to slow starts, the Mets were 11 video games listed below .500 since June 2 (24-35). But in between the return of Francisco Alvarez from a left thumb sprain, the addition and unexpected breakout of infielder/budding pop star Jose Iglesias, the development of Mark Vientos as an offending force, and the MVP-caliber play of Lindor, the Mets climbed up off the mat. They went 32-15 from June 3 through July 29, and at the trade due date they resolved their lineup, rotation, and bullpen by including Jesse Winker, Paul Blackburn, Ryne Stanek, and Huascar Brazobán.

Alas — with the Mets, there’s normally an alas, isn’t there? — they lost 8 of their very first 13 after the due date, a stretch that included their scoring simply one run throughout a three-game sweep by the Mariners in Seattle. They have actually declined to go silently, nevertheless, even with the Padres and Diamondbacks soaring past them in the Wild Card standings. Walk-off homers by Alvarez and Winker versus the Orioles on August 19 and 21 pulled the Mets to within a video game and a half of the 3rd Wild Card area, and they’ve gone 8-3 because through a trip through San Diego, Arizona, and the South Side of Chicago, followed by Monday’s return home versus the Red Sox. They’re now simply half a video game behind the Braves for the 3rd Wild Card area, with their greatest Playoff Odds because August 8. This race ain’t over.

Pirates

Despite their existing record, this has actually quickly been the Pirates’ most intriguing season because 2018, when they ended up 82-79, and possibly their most intriguing because their ’13–15 run of 3 straight Wild Card groups. That’s thanks in big part to a revamped rotation including novices Paul Skenes and Jared Jones, along with the return of Oneil Cruz after a season lost to a fractured ankle. The Pirates bolted from eviction, winning 9 of their very first 11 video games, however they were however simply 17-22 when Skenes, in 2015’s no. 1 draft choice, debuted on May 11. He rapidly took his location amongst the majors’ most dominant pitchers, tossing 6 hitless innings with 11 strikeouts in his 2nd start on May 17, and has actually provided a 2.23 period and 2.72 FIP with a 32.3% strikeout rate, 2nd amongst certified beginners because his arrival.

The Pirates won 9 of Skenes’ very first 12 starts, and by July 22 were simply 3.5 video games out of a playoff area, with 25.2% chances, their greatest because April. They were hectic ahead of the due date, getting infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa, outfielder Bryan De La Cruz, and a number of reducers while dealing away Martín Pérez.

Very little bit has actually gone right because. The group lost 10 in a row from August 4–14 versus the Diamondbacks (one video game), Padres (6 video games) and Dodgers (3 video games), and went 8-19 in August. Neither Kiner-Falefa (62 wRC+) nor De La Cruz (33 wRC+) has actually struck a lick because their particular trades, though they’ve had lots of business, with Ke’Bryan Hayes, Connor Joe, Bryan Reynolds, and Michael A. Taylor all dipping into replacement level or even worse. Meanwhile, the pitching personnel has actually been lit for a 5.31 period and 4.64 FIP because the due date, with unstable previous All-Star David Bednar blowing 3 conserves, permitting 14 runs in 10.2 innings, and eventually losing his task as closer. The most intriguing aspect of the Pirates recently is the choice to move Cruz — who’s been among the group’s most reliable players (.271/.327/.466, 114 wRC+) — from shortstop to center field, a choice that however signified it was time to play out the string.

Giants

The February and March additions of Jorge Soler, Blake Snell, and Matt Chapman increased the Giants’ chances to 43.4%, the sixth-highest in the NL. Perhaps due to the fact that they didn’t have typical springs to prepare, nevertheless, all 3 began gradually, and the rest of the group plodded on also. The Giants were simply 29-29 at the end of May, and 41-44 at the end of June, with Snell bring a 9.51 period into July while landing on the hurt list two times. The group really didn’t invest a day in July above .500, and they dealt Soler and Alex Cobb away however kept Snell regardless of heavy interest; they likewise included Bay Area preferred Mark Canha from the Tigers.

Snell rewarded the Giants’ faith by tossing a no-hitter versus the Reds on August 2, part of an 8-2 run that moved the Giants to a season-high 3 video games above .500 (61-58) since August 10. The issue already was that the Padres and Diamondbacks had actually risen to the top of the Wild Card standings — and even put a scare into the NL West-leading Dodgers — leaving the Giants in the dust:

After that, the Giants lost 4 in a row, and they’ve continued to move to the point that they’re back listed below .500 once again thanks in big part to an offense that’s struck simply .220/.280/.376 because the due date, with an 84 wRC+, connected with the Rockies for the NL’s worst because period. Should have stuck to the Soler power, amirite?

Cardinals

Despite their rocky start and the loss of their finest player, the Cardinals weathered Contreras’ lack. While they were barely a powerhouse — provided the battles of Arenado, Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman and their center fielders, not to discuss their overhauled-but-still-mediocre pitching — since July 8, they were 48-42, 4.5 video games out of top place, with Playoff Odds of 34.3%. They stumbled along through the rest of July, even losing series to the Pirates and Nationals, and simply splitting with the Cubs.

Nonetheless, the Cardinals were active at the due date, trading for Pham and Erick Fedde, albeit at the expense of the flexible Tommy Edman, who had yet to bet them in 2024 however who had actually looked as though he might assist support the production at 2nd base and/or in center field. Things rapidly broke down, as they lost 12 of their very first 17 video games in August while permitting almost 5 runs per video game. On August 21, they optioned the frustrating Gorman and Jordan Walker — 2 of their leading position playing potential customers of current years — to Triple-A Memphis. Gorman was striking simply .203/.271/.400 (86 wRC+) with a 37.6% strikeout rate and substandard defense at 2nd, while Walker, who had actually been up for simply a couple weeks after investing 4 months at Memphis settling his mechanics and method, had actually struck .145/.228/.232 (32 wRC+) in 79 PA to that point.

Contreras’ damaged finger was simply the coup de grâce. While the Cardinals have actually gone 5-4 because, they DFA’d Pham, who was declared by the Royals, and revived Walker in order to play him every day while withstanding the typical growing discomforts. He had a five-hit video game that included his very first homer of the season in a 14-7 win at Yankee Stadium on Sunday, however at this moment, it’s insufficient, too late.

Red Sox

After back-to-back 78-win seasons, this year’s Red Sox have actually produced a far more engaging group. With remarkably strong beginning pitching, and breakouts by Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Connor Wong, they weathered the significant injuries of Trevor Story and Triston Casas. At the All-Star break, they were 53-43, with a 1.5-game cushion for the 3rd Wild Card area and still simply video games 5 out of top place in the AL East.

The rest of July didn’t go as well. The Red Sox lost 7 of 10 video games heading into the due date, slipping to 2.5 video games out of a Wild Card area, and while they made a number of relocations, absolutely nothing they did totaled up to an effect addition — an all-too-familiar scenario for John Henry’s club in the last few years. They reacquired James Paxton, and included Danny Jansen and a couple of bullpen pieces, consisting of Luis García and Lucas Sims, however even those relocations have actually mainly backfired. Paxton made simply 3 starts before going back to his all-too-familiar home on the hurt list. Jansen made history by betting both the Blue Jays and Red Sox in a suspended video game however has actually pinched hit simply a 64 wRC+ for his brand-new group. García and Sims made a hash of their high-leverage chances, integrating to enable 22 runs in 20.2 innings before landing on the IL, having actually made substantial contributions to the bullpen’s 5.59 period and 5.20 FIP because the due date.

With the exception of a strong stretch from Brayan Bello, the rotation has actually mainly fallen back because time also, and for as excellent a human interest story as the current Rich Hill return might be, his work isn’t going to turn things around. While the Sox stay 4th in the AL Wild Card race, they’re now closer to last location in the AL East (3.5 video games) than receiving the postseason (4.5 video games).

Mariners

Perhaps a few of the supervisors of the groups above will pay the cost for their teams’ August fades. Mariners supervisor Scott Servais currently has actually, having actually been fired on August 23 and changed by Dan Wilson. The group led the AL West by as lots of as 10 video games on June 18, when they were 44-31, however it’s been primarily downhill because, as they lost 20 of their next 29 video games while the Astros captured up:

Still, Seattle was connected for the department lead at the due date, and they made some huge relocations, dealing for Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner to inject some life into their moribund offense, and Yimi García to update their bullpen. Arozarena (111 wRC+) and Turner (109 wRC+) have actually assisted, however the offense has actually produced a 97 wRC+ on either side of the due date with just a small decrease in their significant league-high strikeout rate (27.8% before, 26.6% after). Their scoring has really enhanced, however their run avoidance has actually worn down; they’ve gone 13-17 because the due date regardless of outscoring challengers:

Within what has actually normally been a first-class rotation that still owns the majors’ least expensive period (3.53) and third-lowest FIP (3.77) — a few of which owes to park impacts — both George Kirby and Luis Castillo have actually chosen the incorrect time to battle. García hasn’t succeeded (though Stanek, whom he changed, has actually been even worse with the Mets) within a bullpen that has actually netted -0.7 WAR because the due date; just the Red Sox (-1.0) have actually been even worse. Though the Mariners’ playoff hopes haven’t been totally snuffed out, they’re 5.5 video games out of the 3rd Wild Card area and 6 back in the department race, headed towards their 22nd miss out on of the postseason in 23 years. Ouch.