

Over the last 5 years, Logan Webb has actually developed himself as one of the most elite beginning pitchers in Major League Baseball. His consistency is amazing; he frequently provides 30-start seasons with Earned Run Averages (Periods) in the low 3s, a testimony to his dependability given that transitioning to a full-time sinkerballer in 2021. During this duration, he has actually balanced a remarkable 4.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) each year and has actually gone beyond 200 innings pitched in each of the last 2 seasons. Currently, he is making waves once again in 2025, boasting an impressive 2.63 AGE and 2.25 FIP after simply 4 starts. However, there is a notable development in his pitching technique that requires a fresh, in-depth evaluation.
Webb’s pitching technique has actually constantly been simple yet extremely efficient. When dealing with right-handed batters, he mostly counts on 3 pitches: the sinker, sweeper, and changeup. Against lefties, he changes his method, decreasing using the sweeper while increasing the frequency of his changeup and periodically integrating four-seam fastballs in location of sinkers. This tactical variation permits him to customize his pitch choice based upon the batter’s handedness, enhancing his efficiency on the mound. The following graphic, offered by Baseball Savant, highlights Webb’s pitch motion profile for 2023, highlighting the subtleties in his method:
This graphic exposes numerous crucial elements of Webb’s pitching toolbox in a single picture. Notably, his sinker and changeup show unique motion patterns that set them apart from the league-average variations of these pitches. His irregular four-seamer shows efficient, not since of its shape, however due to its contrast with his main fastball. The sweeper is distinct because it breaks glove side substantially. When players deal with Webb, they are faced with pitches that either tail difficult to the arm side (sinker or changeup) or break dramatically to the glove side (sweeper), developing a difficult and vibrant experience, comparable to dealing with prominent pitchers like Clay Holmes or Blake Treinen for a prolonged period.
This intricacy makes dealing with Webb a difficult job, yet it provides an understandable problem. Hitters are frequently familiar with a foreseeable trajectory based upon his arm angle, yet they discover that the ball does not follow that anticipated course. When a pitch emerges from Webb’s hand that seems right down the middle to the player, it can be stealthily simple for them to let it pass. The distinct motion profiles of his pitches guarantee that whatever differs that preliminary trajectory, making complex the batter’s decision-making procedure.
Despite having unquestionably outstanding raw skill—evidenced by PitchingBot and Stuff+ regularly granting Webb top-15 things grades—he has actually traditionally fought with accomplishing high strikeout rates. In reality, his swung strike rates have actually stayed substantially second-rate. This is partially attributable to his dependence on sinkers, yet even his secondary pitches yield less whiffs than one may expect offered their attributes.
In 2025, Webb’s pitch motion profile has actually gone through visible modifications:
The popular space formerly observed in Webb’s pitch mix is now filled. He has actually presented a bridge cutter, a pitch that he utilizes almost as regularly as his extremely efficient changeup. In his very first 4 starts of the season, he has actually used the cutter versus left-handed batters around 25% of the time.
The thinking behind this brand-new pitch is essentially rooted in the concept of deceptiveness in pitching. Webb was formerly constrained in his capability to trick left-handed batters, who were not confronted with adequate tough choices concerning pitch results. Although he handled to be successful with his existing command, it was an uphill struggle due to the visible army divides of sinkers and sweepers. Left-handed players strolled versus him almost two times as frequently as their right-handed equivalents and displayed a lower frequency of chasing after pitches out of the strike zone while being more selective with strikes.
While it is still early to draw conclusive conclusions about Webb’s efficiency versus left-handed batters in 2025, he has actually made substantial strides this season using his brand-new cutter. He is setting out an impressive 31.1% of left-handed batters while permitting just a 6.7% walk rate. For context, his total strikeout rate given that 2021 has actually been 22.5%, with a 5.5% walk rate. His swinging strike rate versus left-handers now stands at 12.1%, representing the greatest mark of his profession. While it is not likely that this level of enhancement will be completely sustainable, the pattern appears appealing. The pitches he now tosses to lefties when trying to strike them out are carrying out substantially much better in accomplishing that goal:
Logan Webb, Swinging Strike Rate vs. Lefties
Pitch | 2021-2024 | 2025 |
---|---|---|
Sinker | 5.1% | 2.3% |
Changeup | 14.6% | 18.2% |
Sweeper | 8.8% | 17.1% |
Four-Seamer | 12.1% | 13.3% |
So, what does Webb’s brand-new cutter appear like? To be frank, it is rather typical initially look. Here is an example of a cutter he tossed to Ben Rice throughout a current video game in New York:
Unimpressive, right? Our pitch designs definitely don’t concern it as anything unique. It includes a typical speed and unexciting shape; the most good element of that pitch was its accurate area, yet even then, Rice handled to make contact. However, that swing did not appear especially comfy, and here’s the reason that. Below is what Webb’s sinker appears like when dealing with left-handed players:
This is the essential motion that damages should represent when dealing with Webb: pitches that seem within frequently wind up right over the middle of the plate. If a cutter is tossed on a comparable trajectory, it will likely remain within. Conversely, if a sinker begins on the exact same course as the pitch Rice fouled off, it would tail off the plate away. This discusses why Rice’s swing appeared uncomfortable; he was leaning for a pitch that stopped working to move as expected.
The at-bat did not conclude with a cutter; rather, it concluded with this relatively harmless four-seamer:
Ah, yes, a pitch right down the middle fixes the riddle. In Rice’s defense, that was the only four-seamer he experienced from Webb that day, and had it been any other pitch, its motion would have most likely taken it out of the strike zone. This highlights my point: by diversifying his pitch mix and especially integrating a pitch that fills the space in his east-west motion circulation, Webb has actually made the task of players substantially more tough.
Quantifying the effect of Webb’s brand-new cutter provides a complex obstacle, one that I am grateful to prevent. At Baseball Prospectus, Stephen Sutton-Brown designed an approach to examine the worth of a varied pitch mix, classifying it into 4 unique metrics referred to as toolbox metrics. Three of these 4 metrics are mostly obvious, and their outputs exist as percentiles:
Logan Webb, Arsenal Metrics by Year (Percentiles)
Year | Pitch Type Probability | Surprise Factor | Movement Spread | Velocity Spread |
---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 37 | 76 | 32 | 16 |
2025 | 68 | 81 | 43 | 14 |
Examining these figures exposes that Webb’s pitch type likelihood percentile has actually substantially increased. This specific toolbox metric needs even more information. Pitch type likelihood describes “the probability the batter would be able to correctly identify the incoming pitch type given the release point, the pitch’s trajectory up to the batter’s decision point, and the count in which it was thrown,” as explained in Sutton-Brown’s guide. Essentially, it determines a pitcher’s capability to keep players thinking and interrupt their expectations. A greater pitch type likelihood suggests higher unpredictability for the batter. Last year, Webb was second-rate in this metric, and his battles appeared. Now, he has actually risen into the leading third of the league, with his surprise aspect and motion spread likewise growing. While his speed spread stays the same—the cutter falls within the normal speed series of his previous pitches—his addition of the cutter and increased usage of four-seamers have actually changed other elements of his efficiency.
Although Webb hasn’t relied greatly on cutters versus right-handed players this season, the reasoning is clear. His sinker shows almost unequalled versus righties, resulting in bad swing choices and creating ground balls on two-thirds of the contact made versus it, a remarkably high rate. His sweeper successfully causes weak contact when righties swing at it, as it breaks away while they expect sinkers, leading to uneasy, lunging swings. He likewise has the command to successfully bury his changeup in beneficial counts.
To frame this in a different way: Prior to 2025, Webb had the required tools to outmaneuver right-handed players; sinkers and sweepers from right-handed pitchers are extremely efficient versus them. However, he was at a drawback by not totally profiting from the army benefit; his 2 finest pitches were less efficient versus opposite-handed batters. To address this constraint, he presented a cutter, permitting him to embrace 2 unique techniques depending upon whether he is dealing with righties or lefties.
Throughout his big league profession, Webb has actually not shown substantial army divides; he has actually carried out at approximately a league-average level. Nonetheless, it constantly appeared as though his divides must have been even worse. Regardless, it would definitely benefit him to enhance those divides. The idea of “just add a cutter” may be a typical service, however for Webb, it appears to be the ideal response. Unfortunately for batters throughout the league, among the leading pitchers in baseball has actually simply ended up being a lot more powerful by including a pitch that, initially look, appears rather typical. Such is the unforeseeable nature of the video game.
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