The very first set of UEFA Champions League last-16 components are upon us – how will the holders fare? We expect Tuesday’s video game at Parken Stadium with our FC Copenhagen vs Manchester City forecast and sneak peek.
FC Copenhagen vs Manchester City: The Quick Hits
- Manchester City are anticipated to take the effort in this last-16 tie, winning Tuesday’s very first leg in Copenhagen in 71.0% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations.
- Man City have actually won their last 8 Champions League video games, the longest run by any English side in European Cup/Champions League history.
- Roony Bardghji scored the winner when Copenhagen beat Manchester United 4-3 in the group phase. He might now end up being simply the 2nd gamer to web versus 2 various English clubs in the Champions League as a teen, after Kylian Mbappé.
Match Preview
The UEFA Champions League is back, and on Tuesday, all eyes will be on the protecting champs. Real Madrid – who won 3 succeeding titles in between 2015-16 and 2017-18 – are the only group to keep European football’s leading reward considering that the competitors’s 1992 rebrand, however Manchester City approach the knockout rounds as the group to beat again. Will they make easy work of underdogs Copenhagen?
In the most recent edition of the Opta supercomputer’s competition forecasts, City are appointed a 32.1% opportunity of going all the method and winning their 2nd European crown, making them clear favourites ahead of Madrid (15.4%), Inter (11.6%) and Bayern Munich (10.1%). Pep Guardiola’s side are provided a big 93.9% opportunity of advancing previous Copenhagen, and provided their current kind, it’s simple to see why.
Saturday’s 2-0 Premier League win over Everton made it 10 straight success for City throughout all competitors, and they stay on course for a repeat of last season’s treble. Worryingly for Copenhagen, objective device Erling Haaland recalled to his finest versus the Toffees, netting two times to stop a run of 17 shots and 418 minutes without a Premier League objective.
Haaland has actually scored 40 objectives in simply 35 looks in the Champions League, and the Norwegian led all gamers in the competitors for non-penalty shots (27), shots on target (16) and anticipated objectives (3.83 xG) throughout the group phase, while signing up with Antoine Griezmann, Álvaro Morata and Rasmus Højlund at the top of the scoring charts with 5 objectives in as numerous video games.
Guardiola is ruined for option behind Haaland, with Kevin De Bruyne, Jack Grealish and Bernardo Silva all wishing to go back to the lineup after being rested on Saturday. Julián Álvarez might keep his location, having actually taped 6 objective participations in his last 5 Champions League video games (5 objectives, one help), regardless of just beginning among those matches. He is balancing an objective or a help every 31 minutes in the competitors this season.
At the base of midfield, Guardiola will once again count on Rodri, the hero of in 2015’s last success over Inter in Istanbul. The Spaniard has actually made more line-breaking passes than any other gamer in the Champions League this term (100), while his 306 effective passes in the opposition half are at least 48 more than any other gamer (previous colleague Ilkay Gündoğan has 258).
With City injury-free and in threatening kind, Copenhagen will need to remain undaunted and wait on their chance to break, with the holders balancing 70.4% belongings in their Champions League video games this season. There are just 5 circumstances on record (considering that 2003-04) of a group balancing more than that in a single project, with 4 of those being published by Guardiola groups (Barcelona in 2009-10, 2010-11, and 2011-12, Bayern in 2015-16).
Copenhagen aren’t simply here to comprise the numbers though, as they showed by ending up above Galatasaray and Manchester United to certify from Group A. Jacob Neestrup’s guys even made a goalless draw versus Bayern in November, so City would be smart not to take them gently.
The Danish Superliga champs are appearing in the Champions League knockout phases for simply the 2nd time, having actually suffered a 2-0 aggregate defeat to Chelsea in the last 16 back in 2010-11. Copenhagen were last in league action in early December, with a long winter season break providing time to stew on back-to-back beats to Viborg and AGF, which left them 3rd in the table.
However, they may simply enjoy their underdog function and are skilled in playing on the break. Across the Champions League’s group phase, just 3 groups permitted their challengers more passes per protective action than Copenhagen (16.8 PPDA), and just 4 started their series closer to their own objective than the Danes’ average of 39.2 metres.
In 18-year-old forward Roony Bardghji, on the other hand, Copenhagen can hire among Europe’s most sought-after wonderkids, and he is considering a piece of history on Tuesday.
Bardghji scored the winner as Copenhagen taped a sensational 4-3 success over Manchester United in November, and he might now end up being simply the 2nd teen to web versus 2 various English clubs in the Champions League after Kylian Mbappé (Man City and Liverpool). No teen has actually ever accomplished that task in a single season.
FC Copenhagen vs Manchester City Head-to-Head
This will be the 5th conference in between the groups, with Copenhagen yet to tape-record a single success versus City (2 draws, 2 beats).
However, they have actually drawn both of their previous home matches versus the Citizens, 2-2 in the 2008-09 UEFA Cup and 0-0 in last season’s Champions League group phase.
Indeed, City have actually never ever won an away video game versus Danish challengers in significant European competitors, likewise losing at Aalborg BK in the UEFA Cup in 2009. They did, nevertheless, win 1-0 at FC Midtjylland in 2008-09 UEFA Cup certifying.
Danish sides have actually lost all 3 of their previous European Cup/Champions League home video games versus ruling European champs by an aggregate rating of 12-0.
Køge BK lost 5-0 to Bayern in 1976, Aalborg were beaten 3-0 by Man Utd in 2008 and FC Nordsjælland were whipped 4-0 by Chelsea in 2012.
FC Copenhagen vs Manchester City Recent Form
City have actually won their last 8 Champions League video games, the longest winning run taped by an English club in European Cup/Champions League history. The last group to take pleasure in a longer gaining streak in the competitors was Bayern, who won 15 straight in between 2019 and 2020.
However, City haven’t constantly impressed on their journeys in Europe.
Indeed, regardless of winning the competitors last season, City have actually not won any of their last 5 away video games in the Champions League’s knockout phases, drawing 4 and losing one considering that pounding Sporting CP 5-0 in the last 16 in 2021-22. Copenhagen ended the group phase with back-to-back home wins over United and Galatasaray, however throughout all competitors, they have actually lost 3 of their last 5 at Parken Stadium (2 wins).
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are an international group ranking system that designates a capability rating to over 13,000 domestic football groups on a scale in between absolutely no and 100, where absolutely no is the worst-ranked group worldwide and 100 is the very best group worldwide.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
FC Copenhagen vs Manchester City Prediction
Across 10,000 match simulations carried out by the Opta supercomputer ahead of kick-off, City beat Copenhagen in 71.0% of situations.
That is quickly the greatest win possibility provided to any group for today’s very first set of knockout components, ahead of Bayern, who have a 56.7% opportunity of winning their very first leg at Lazio.
Copenhagen are provided simply an 11.3% opportunity of a surprise win, while the probability of a draw is ranked at 17.7%. The hosts would definitely be content to merely stay in the tie ahead of the return component at the Etihad Stadium.
FC Copenhagen vs Manchester City UCL Squads
FC Copenhagen: Kamil Grabara, Theo Sander, Rúnar Rúnarsson, Kevin Diks, Denis Vavro, David Khocholava, Christian Sørensen, Nicolai Boilesen, Peter Ankersen, Birger Meling, Scott McKenna, Viktor Claesson, Magnus Mattsson, Mohamed Elyounoussi, Lukas Lerager, Diogo Gonçalves, Jordan Larsson, Andreas Cornelius, Khouma Babacar, Elias Achouri, Rasmus Falk.
Head Coach: Jacob Neestrup.
Manchester City: Stefan Ortega, Ederson, Scott Carson, Kyle Walker, Rúben Dias, John Stones, Nathan Aké, Sergio Gómez, Joško Gvardiol, Manuel Akanji, Mateo Kovačić, Jack Grealish, Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva, Matheus Nunes, Phil Foden, Erling Haaland, Jérémy Doku, Julián Álvarez.
Head Coach: Pep Guardiola.
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