The New York Mets have reached an agreement with Griffin Canning on a significant one-year contract worth $4.25 million in free agency, as reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. This deal is contingent upon a successful physical examination and includes an additional $1 million in performance-based bonuses. With four open spots on their roster, the Mets will not need to make any corresponding moves. Canning, who is represented by Wasserman, is set to make a notable impact on the team.

This contract marks Canning’s third team in a single offseason, following a trade from the Los Angeles Angels to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for Jorge Soler, just hours after the trade market reopened. As highlighted by MLBTR’s Steve Adams, Canning was not guaranteed a long-term position with Atlanta. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had estimated his arbitration salary at $5.1 million for his final year, leading the Braves to non-tender him, indicating that the trade was primarily aimed at alleviating the final two years of Soler’s contract.

This non-tendering made Canning a free agent for the first time in his career. At 28 years old, he is now heading to Queens, where he will compete for a starting rotation spot. With over five years of service time, Canning cannot be optioned to the minors without his consent, ensuring he will be part of the MLB roster in some role. However, it’s possible he may initially be positioned in long relief as the season begins.

Canning was selected in the second round of the 2017 draft from UCLA and quickly established himself as one of the top pitching prospects within the Angels’ organization. He was identified as a fast-moving college pitcher with the potential to develop into a reliable middle-of-the-rotation starter. Canning made his major league debut within two years, but his performance has been inconsistent throughout his career. He recorded a 4.58 earned run average (ERA) over 90 1/3 innings during his rookie season, with his standout performance occurring during the abbreviated 2020 season when he achieved a 3.99 ERA across 11 starts.

That 2020 season remains Canning’s only performance with an ERA below 4.00. In 2021, he struggled significantly, posting a 5.60 ERA in 14 appearances, which led the Angels to send him down to Triple-A. Shortly after, he was placed on the injured list due to a stress reaction in his lower back, which continued to affect him and ultimately sidelined him for the entire 2022 season.

At that time, there were concerns that injuries might derail his career trajectory. The back injury was particularly severe, but he also faced ongoing elbow issues earlier in his career. Fortunately, Canning has managed to maintain better health over the past two seasons. Although he did spend time on the injured list twice in 2023, those were brief stints relating to minor leg injuries. Remarkably, he avoided any time on the IL this year. However, his performance has seen a decline.

In the 2022 season, Canning recorded a 4.32 ERA over 127 innings, but his struggles continued into the following season as he allowed an average of 5.19 earned runs per nine innings over a career-high 171 2/3 innings. His strikeout rate fell to a personal-low of 17.6%, which is significantly below the previous year’s 25.9%. Additionally, his walk rate increased slightly, while his swinging strike percentage decreased from 12.8% to a league-average 11% rate.

Canning’s pitch quality also saw a downturn, as he averaged 93.4 MPH on his four-seam fastball this season, which is a decrease from the prior year’s 94.7 MPH. Opponents capitalized on this pitch, hitting 16 home runs with a .529 slugging percentage against it. Canning utilizes a typical four-pitch repertoire, including a fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball, and has intermittently shown the potential to be a fourth starter. The Mets are hoping to help him regain that more consistently effective form.

With this signing, Canning becomes the third potential starter added to the Mets’ roster through free agency. The team has also pursued upside plays in Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes, the latter of whom will transition into rotation work after spending six seasons primarily as a reliever. While Canning may not possess the same high ceiling as the others, his lower price point aligns with New York’s strategy of building depth in their pitching staff.

Currently, it is expected that Montas, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, and Holmes will comprise the Opening Day rotation. Canning, along with Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn, will compete for the fifth starter role, although the Mets may opt for a six-man rotation. Senga was limited to just one regular-season start this year due to injury, and the team will need to monitor Holmes’ workload closely to prevent fatigue. Blackburn concluded the 2024 season on the injured list and underwent postseason spinal surgery, which may delay his readiness for Spring Training.

To bolster their pitching stability, the Mets are likely in search of additional mid-rotation arms. They have maintained communication with Sean Manaea since he declined their qualifying offer. Reports suggest that while they are considered long shots to acquire Corbin Burnes, they have been linked to Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta, both of whom remain unsigned as the Winter Meetings approach. Bringing in another starter would enable the Mets to potentially shift one of Canning, Megill, or Blackburn into a multi-inning relief role.

According to RosterResource, the Mets’ salary commitments and competitive balance tax (CBT) figure hover around $255 million. Owner Steve Cohen has previously shown a willingness to exceed the CBT threshold by over $300 million. Currently, they are positioned in the lowest tier of luxury tax penalties, facing a 50% tax rate on expenditures between $241 million and $261 million. Consequently, the tax impact of Canning’s contract amounts to $2.125 million, bringing their total investment in him to approximately $6.375 million before performance incentives.

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