Rockies Make Strategic Move: Justin Lawrence Placed on Waivers

The Colorado Rockies have officially placed right-hander Justin Lawrence on waivers, as reported by Jon Heyman from the New York Post. It’s important to note that this action does not equate to a designation for assignment. During the waiver process, Lawrence is allowed to continue training with the Rockies and participate in spring games. However, since this waiver placement is irrevocable, if any opposing teams decide to claim him, Lawrence will soon join a new organization, potentially offering him a fresh start in his career.

Analyzing Justin Lawrence’s MLB Journey: From Promise to Struggles

At 30 years old, Lawrence has accumulated experience over four seasons in Major League Baseball since making his debut with the Rockies in 2021. His initial season was marked by difficulties, where he struggled significantly in his limited appearances. In 2022, although he posted a disheartening 5.70 ERA, deeper metrics painted a more favorable picture of his performance. With a 3.39 FIP, a 3.54 xERA, and a 3.63 SIERA, it was evident that Lawrence’s actual pitching capability was better than his superficial statistics suggested. He faced challenges such as a low 63.7% strand rate and a high .350 BABIP, but his impressive 25.1% strikeout rate paired with a 50.8% groundball rate indicated that he had the potential to develop into a quality MLB reliever.

Breakout Season: Lawrence Shines Amidst Challenges

Lawrence transformed into that anticipated quality MLB reliever during the 2023 season, achieving a breakout year at the age of 28. Over 75 innings, he recorded an impressive 3.72 ERA and a matching 3.76 FIP, securing 11 saves while sharing closer duties with the struggling veteran Pierce Johnson. While his ERA may not stand out, considering the notoriously challenging offensive conditions at Coors Field, his performance was actually above average, highlighted by a strong 134 ERA+. His metrics continued to align with his previous year’s performance, showcasing a 23.9% strikeout rate, an 11% walk rate, and a 48.5% groundball rate. As he looked forward to 2024, it appeared that Lawrence had laid a solid foundation for ongoing success in MLB.

Setbacks in 2024: Lawrence Experiences a Difficult Season

Unfortunately, the 2024 season took a downturn for Lawrence, marking the most challenging period of his career. He posted a troubling 6.49 ERA over 59 2/3 innings, with peripheral metrics regressing across the board. His walk rate increased to 11.8%, while his strikeout rate dropped to a mere 16.1%. Only four pitchers in the majors had a lower K-BB% than Lawrence last year. Coupled with the common BABIP and strand rate issues faced by pitchers in Coors Field, his struggles were well supported by metrics that reflected his poor performance, including a 5.63 FIP, a 6.25 xERA, and a 4.73 SIERA. This challenging season raised questions about his future in the league.

Spring Training Challenges: Lawrence’s Performance Under Scrutiny

As spring training commenced, Lawrence’s early outings did not inspire much confidence. Although spring performance should be viewed with caution, he has demonstrated a lack of control, accumulating three walks and two hit batters, all while managing only two strikeouts in three innings. This concerning performance seems to have prompted the Rockies, who had already expressed an interest in trading Lawrence during the winter, to make a decisive move. By placing him on waivers, the Rockies not only open opportunities for younger relief pitchers like Angel Chivilli and Jeff Criswell but also position themselves to potentially save the $975K arbitration salary if another team claims Lawrence.

What Happens Next? The Waiver Process Explained

Following Lawrence’s placement on waivers, rival teams will have a 48-hour window to submit claims for his services. If he remains unclaimed, Lawrence will continue to be part of the Rockies’ roster. At that point, the Rockies could either outright him off the 40-man roster and assign him to the minors for depth or retain him in their major league bullpen, depending on their strategic needs moving forward. This decision will be critical for both Lawrence’s career trajectory and the Rockies’ roster management as they navigate the upcoming season.