After a depressing 3-0 defeat to Bundesliga title competitors Bayer Leverkusen, can Bayern Munich react in Europe? We expect Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League action with our data-powered Lazio vs Bayern Munich forecast and sneak peek.

Lazio vs Bayern Munich: The Quick Hits

• The Opta supercomputer is siding with Bayern Munich ahead of the very first leg of their UEFA Champions League last-16 tie with Lazio, providing the German giants a 56.7% opportunity of success in Rome.
• Bayern have actually advanced from 11 of their last 12 Champions League round-of-16 ties, with the exception coming versus ultimate champs Liverpool in 2018-19.
• No gamer has more objective participations in this season’s competitors than Bayern star Harry Kane (7 – 4 objectives, 3 helps). Only in 2017-18 (9) has the previous Tottenham striker tape-recorded more in a single edition of the Champions League.

Match Preview

Bayern Munich are not a club accustomed to an absence of success, and with their 11-year stranglehold on the Bundesliga title now in serious danger, supervisor Thomas Tuchel is under serious pressure. Should Bayern fail on the domestic front, winning the UEFA Champions League might be the only method for Tuchel to keep hold of his task. Can his under-fire side browse a method through their last-16 tie versus Lazio? 

Bayern were well beaten 3-0 by title competitors Bayer Leverkusen on Saturday as Xabi Alonso’s guys showed beyond all doubt that they are the genuine offer. The sight of Bayern loanee Josip Stanisic scoring versus his moms and dad club will have rankled the visitors, even before second-half objectives from Álex Grimaldo and Jeremie Frimpong made it comfy.

The Opta supercomputer now rates Bayern’s hopes of a 12th straight Bundesliga crown at simply 26.5%, compared to Leverkusen’s 73.4%. Tuchel now cannot pay for to supervise an early European exit, however there are couple of groups more fluent in browsing the Champions League’s knockout rounds than Bayern.

Indeed, Bayern have actually advanced from 11 of their last 12 Champions League last-16 ties, with the exception coming versus ultimate champs Liverpool in 2018-19. Bayern have actually likewise prevented defeat in the very first leg of 11 straight round-of-16 ties, with 7 wins and 4 draws.

For all their battles on the domestic front, Bayern breezed through the Champions League group phase, tape-recording 5 wins and one draw to beat FC Copenhagen, Galatasaray and Manchester United to leading area in Group A.

The kind of Harry Kane was a significant consider their success, with the England captain tape-recording more objective participations than any other gamer in the Champions League’s group phase this season (7 – 4 objectives, 3 helps). Only in 2017-18 (9) has the previous Tottenham striker added to more objectives in a single project in the competitors.

While Kane is Bayern’s undeniable talisman, Tuchel can likewise hire a leaving backup alternative in Mathys Tel, with the 18-year-old being straight associated with 3 objectives as an alternative in the group phase, scoring two times and helping when in simply 54 minutes. Since records started in 2003-04, no Bayern gamer has actually handled more objective participations as an alternative in a single Champions League project.

Tel might have a function to play in Wednesday’s very first leg versus Lazio, with injuries sidelining fellow assailants Kingsley Coman and Serge Gnabry.

Bayern reacted to their injury lacks by bringing the arrival of Spanish winger Bryan Zaragoza forward to January, though he was not available through disease versus Leverkusen. Fellow brand-new arrivals Eric Dier and Sacha Boey stopped working to impress because video game and deal with a fight to stay in the beginning lineup.

Lazio have actually likewise underwhelmed locally this term, sitting 8th in Serie A and 5 points adrift of the leading 4. However, Maurizio Sarri’s guys appear to have actually turned a corner by winning 5 of their last 7 league video games, thriving 3-1 at Cagliari on Saturday, and they will see this tie as something of a totally free hit.

The Biancocelesti are making simply their 3rd look in the Champions League knockout phase, having actually lost both of their previous such ties. They were removed by Valencia in the quarter-finals of the 1999-00 competition, before catching Bayern at this phase 3 years earlier.

Their hopes of springing a surprise might rest upon the shoulders of captain Ciro Immobile, who scored 3 of Lazio’s 7 objectives as they completed as runners-up to Atlético Madrid in Group E. Overall, Immobile has 8 objectives in 11 Champions League looks for Lazio, with just Simone Inzaghi scoring more for the club (15 in 31 looks).

Meanwhile, of all gamers to have actually netted a minimum of 5 times in the competitors for Lazio, Immobile has the very best minutes-per-goal ratio, balancing an objective every 99 minutes.

Boss Sarri is referred to as an idealist, however if his group are to truly check Bayern, a dosage of pragmatism might be needed. Lazio have actually balanced 165 pressures in the last 3rd per Champions League video game this season, one of the most of any side in the competitors. However, they have actually just recuperated belongings in the last 3rd 26 times, ranking 26th amongst the 32 groups to contend in the group phase.

Lazio vs Bayern Munich Head-to-Head

The just previous conferences in between Lazio and Bayern can be found in the 2020-21 edition of the Champions League, with Bayern winning both legs of a last-16 tie.

On that celebration, the Bavarians won 4-1 at the Stadio Olimpico before thriving 2-1 in the reverse component in Germany.

Bayern have a strong record versus Italian sides more typically, winning their last 5 Champions League matches versus Serie A opponents and going unbeaten through their last 12 considering that losing 3-2 in the house to Inter in March 2011.

Indeed, having actually been removed from 4 of their very first 5 Champions League knockout ties versus Italian clubs (consisting of losing the 2010 last to Inter), Bayern have actually advanced from each of their last 3.

Lazio vs Bayern Munich Recent Form

While Lazio have actually been irregular for much of 2023-24, they tend to prosper at the Stadio Olimpico.

Indeed, the Biancocelesti have actually just lost among their last 15 home video games throughout all competitors (10 wins, 4 draws), decreasing 2-0 to Inter in Serie A in December. 

Bayern, however, won all 3 of their away video games en path to topping Group A before Christmas, pounding Copenhagen 2-1, Galatasaray 3-1 and Man Utd 1-0.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a worldwide group ranking system that designates a capability rating to over 13,000 domestic football groups on a scale in between absolutely no and 100, where absolutely no is the worst-ranked group worldwide and 100 is the very best group worldwide.

Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Lazio vs Bayern Munich Prediction

Tuchel requires a reaction after seeing his side taken apart by Leverkusen on Saturday, and the Opta supercomputer anticipates the Bayern employer to get one.

Across 10,000 match simulations carried out ahead of Wednesday’s very first leg, Bayern are triumphant in 56.7% of circumstances. Lazio are provided a 20.3% opportunity of success on home soil, with 23% of simulations completing level. 

Overall, Bayern’s possibilities of winning the tie are ranked at 79.3%, with Man City (93.9%) the only group viewed as most likely to reach the Champions League quarter-finals.

In the supercomputer’s competition forecasts, Bayern are provided a 10.1% opportunity of ending up being European champs for a seventh time, making them 4th favourites behind City (32.1%), Real Madrid (15.5%) and Inter (11.6%).

Lazio are provided simply a 0.45% opportunity of raising the prize, with just Copenhagen (0.05%) viewed as larger outsiders.

Lazio vs Bayern Munich UCL Squads

Lazio: Luigi Sepe, Ivan Provedel, Luca Pellegrini, Patric, Alessio Romagnoli, Nicolò Casale, Elseid Hysaj, Manuel Lazzari, Mario Gila, Matías Vecino, Daichi Kamada, Felipe Anderson, Matteo Guendouzi, Luis Alberto, Danilo Cataldi, Nicolò Rovella, Adam Marušić, Pedro, Ciro Immobile, Gustav Isaksen, Valentín Castellanos, Mattia Zaccagni.

Head Coach: Maurizio Sarri.

Bayern Munich: Manuel Neuer, Daniel Peretz, Sven Ulreich, Dayot Upamecano, Kim Min-jae, Matthijs de Ligt, Eric Dier, Bouna Sarr, Raphaël Guerreiro, Tarek Buchmann, Noussair Mazraoui, Sacha Boey, Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka, Leroy Sané, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, Alphonso Davies, Konrad Laimer, Jamal Musiala, Serge Gnabry, Harry Kane, Kingsley Coman, Bryan Zaragoza, Thomas Müller, Mathys Tel.

Head Coach: Thomas Tuchel.

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