Analyzing Quarterback Performance: Evaluating Luck and Interception Rates in the 2023 NFL Season

Throughout the 2023 NFL season, quarterbacks collectively threw 668 passes categorized as “pickable.” This term refers to throws that, under normal circumstances, could have been intercepted by defenders. Understanding these numbers provides a clearer picture of quarterback performance and the role of luck in the game.

Out of these 668 pickable passes, defenders managed to intercept 429 of them. While most interceptions occurred on these so-called pickable throws, it is important to note that not all interceptions are the result of a poorly thrown pass. Occasionally, defenders make spectacular plays on well-thrown balls, or unexpected scenarios like deflections and falls come into play. This complexity illustrates how quarterback performance is influenced by various factors, including both skill and chance.

The league-wide rate of pickable passes stood at 3.7%, contrasting with an actual interception rate of 2.3%. This disparity highlights the significant role of luck in the game of football. While defenders are not expected to convert every pickable pass into an interception, it is crucial to understand that when a quarterback throws a pickable pass that isn’t intercepted, it’s not solely due to the quarterback’s skill. Instead, it often results from a mix of luck, a defender’s failed attempt to catch the ball, and the performance of the receiving target.

Relying solely on the number of interceptions thrown by a quarterback can be misleading. The relationship between pickable pass rates and interception rates rarely aligns perfectly. For instance, in 2023, only Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions had a pickable rate that was within 0.1% of his actual interception rate. Additionally, only two quarterbacks, Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills and Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles, recorded higher pickable rates than their interception rates. This raises interesting questions about the dynamics at play in Philadelphia’s passing game.

However, it’s essential to recognize that over time, quarterbacks who frequently throw pickable passes are likely to also face a higher rate of interceptions, and vice versa. This cyclical nature of quarterback performance suggests that analyzing these statistics can provide insights into what to expect from the next wave of NFL quarterbacks in 2024.

Let’s meet the ten quarterbacks who recorded a pickable pass rate at least 2.0% higher than their actual interception rates. Leading this group is Will Levis, the rookie quarterback for the Tennessee Titans, who emerged as a bright spot for the franchise throughout the season.

Selected in the second round, Levis showcased impressive abilities by effectively pushing the ball downfield, achieving an average of 7.1 yards per attempt over nine starts, while demonstrating remarkable athleticism for someone his size at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds. His standout feature was his ability to minimize turnovers, throwing only four interceptions in 255 attempts, resulting in one of the lowest interception rates in the league.

Levis experienced a considerable amount of luck in this regard, exhibiting the largest gap between his pickable pass rate and interception rate among quarterbacks with over 200 attempts. While he had the fifth-worst pickable pass rate, he also boasted the ninth-best interception rate, a challenging combination to replicate consistently.

This analysis also raises concerns regarding Baker Mayfield’s return to form with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and whether Jordan Love is on the brink of becoming a star with the Green Bay Packers. Furthermore, it prompts serious concerns regarding Bryce Young in Carolina, as Young faced a notably challenging rookie season and may have been fortunate not to have been intercepted more than the ten times he actually was.

Meanwhile, Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud, who ranks twelfth on this list with a pickable pass rate of 2.86% and an interception rate of 1.00%, is poised for a promising future. However, if his performance in his sophomore season does not match the success of his rookie year, a slight increase in interceptions could be a contributing factor.

Now, let’s examine the quarterbacks whose less-than-ideal passes did not fall harmlessly to the ground.

In 2022, Jalen Hurts was celebrated in Philadelphia for his remarkable transformation from a second-round pick to one of the top players in the league. As a starting quarterback, he achieved an impressive record of 14-1, showcasing his exceptional running ability while rapidly improving as a passer.

One of Hurts’ defining traits during that season was his ability to protect the football efficiently; his interception rate was only 1.3%, ranking fifth in the NFL. Coupled with his ability to maintain offensive momentum, Hurts finished as the runner-up for MVP and secured a contract that would ensure his position as the Eagles’ quarterback for years to come.

However, the 2023 season was a different story. A significant issue arose as Hurts’ interception rate more than doubled to 2.8%. Drives that previously resulted in scoring opportunities were abruptly halted, resulting in opponents gaining advantageous field position, as Hurts transitioned from being one of the least-intercepted quarterbacks to one of the most.

Did Hurts alter his playing style significantly? Yes, but perhaps not in the ways one might expect. In 2022, his pickable pass rate was 4.1%, one of the highest in the league. Defenders simply did not capitalize on pickable opportunities against Hurts that year. In contrast, during 2023, he improved his ability to throw more challenging passes for defenders to intercept, yet they consistently managed to capitalize on these opportunities, ultimately punishing Hurts more than any other quarterback in the league.

He experienced a drastic shift from being a quarterback whose interceptable passes were rarely intercepted to one whose otherwise solid throws turned into turnovers.

What conclusions can we draw from this analysis? While there are no definitive rules governing a quarterback’s luck regarding pickable passes across consecutive seasons, if Hurts maintains a similar approach in 2024 as he did in 2023, he is unlikely to reach the 15-interception mark again.

Hurts stands out as a significant outlier on this list; however, there is also potential encouragement to be found in the performances of Trevor Lawrence (who recently signed a substantial extension in Jacksonville) and Russell Wilson (who is aiming for a resurgence in Pittsburgh), as both were among the league’s most intercepted quarterbacks compared to the quality of their passes.

On the other hand, one might look at Patrick Mahomes’ somewhat unfortunate performance last season and worry about what might happen if fortune finally favors him and the Kansas City Chiefs this coming season.

In this scenario, the rest of this analysis may become less relevant.

Research assistance provided by Stats Perform’s Josiah Sukumaran. Be sure to explore all our coverage of MLB, NBA, college football, and NFL, and follow us on X and Instagram for more updates!