In a significant move, the New York Yankees have secured a major player by signing left-handed pitcher Max Fried to an impressive eight-year contract valued at $218 million. This comes after the team missed out on acquiring Blake Snell and lost the bidding for Juan Soto to their rivals. Fried, who was a first-round draft selection by the San Diego Padres in 2012, has spent his entire Major League Baseball career with the Atlanta Braves. He was notably part of the high-profile trade involving Justin Upton in 2014. This new contract for Fried is unprecedented, with no opt-outs or deferred payment clauses, marking it as the largest contract ever for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history.

Fried faced challenges in the 2023 season, making only 14 starts due to injuries including hamstring and forearm issues, along with a blister on his index finger. However, he made a strong comeback last season, demonstrating resilience and effective pitching to maximize his value during free agency. It’s essential to note that he has had recurring forearm issues, including a diagnosis of ulnar neuritis that sidelined him for several starts in July. Yet, he bounced back and concluded the regular season strongly, showcasing a 2.99 FIP over his last 11 starts. Although he struggled in his playoff appearance against the San Diego Padres, he achieved a commendable 3.25 ERA and 3.33 FIP for the season, contributing to a solid 3.4 WAR across 174 1/3 innings pitched in 29 starts, aligning closely with his career averages.

Without diving into the eight-year projections, I know some fans might be skeptical, so let’s break it down.

Interestingly, the ZiPS projections appear somewhat pessimistic regarding Fried’s future value, estimating him at only $120 million, which seems surprisingly low. This assessment likely stems from a few factors, including his xERA of 3.64 from last season and a slight decline in his contact-against metrics. Additionally, Fried’s recent history of four injured list (IL) stints over the past two years has kept projected inning totals rather conservative. It seems that ZiPS has more enthusiasm for Blake Snell’s potential than for Fried’s reliability. Personally, I hold a more optimistic view of Fried’s career trajectory.

Even if Fried doesn’t emerge as the clear ace alongside Gerrit Cole, the Yankees needed a significant signing after missing out on both Snell and Soto. While the pitching rotation wasn’t the Yankees’ most significant concern heading into the offseason, it certainly required attention. Despite an improved Carlos Rodón in his second season and a promising campaign from Luis Gil, the Yankees’ rotation performance was merely average in terms of WAR. Part of this lackluster performance can be attributed to Cole’s absence for the first two and a half months of the season due to elbow inflammation, which limited him to just 95 innings pitched. Given Cole’s age of 34 and Rodón’s injury history, along with Gil’s potential for regression, the Yankees’ decision to secure another reliable pitcher like Fried was a prudent move, despite lingering concerns about his forearm issues.

It may just be my perception, but it seemed as though the Atlanta Braves were not fully committed to retaining Fried during the offseason. With Reynaldo López transitioning successfully back to a starter role and Spencer Schwellenbach making a strong debut, it appears the Braves were confident in their rotation’s strength, especially with Spencer Strider and a healthy Chris Sale leading the charge.

The Yankees still face challenges in addressing the substantial gap left by Soto in their lineup. However, by signing Fried, they have taken a crucial step in strengthening their starting rotation.