As we reach the midpoint of the offseason, the dynamics of the MLB trade and free agent markets have shifted significantly since the offseason commenced in early November. Nearly half of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents have secured contracts, with most pitchers exceeding expectations in a frenzied effort to bolster rotation depth. While we could consider re-ranking the top remaining free agents based on their current earning potential, such a list would largely feature the same elite names at the top, surrounded by several candidates likely to settle for one-year deals at the bottom.

In contrast, the trade market presents a more intriguing scenario. Approximately 20% of the players originally listed have already been traded, a figure that would increase to 23% if Nolan Arenado had not used his veto power to block a trade to Houston. Several other players on our radar are still expected to be moved. This offseason has unveiled numerous new trade candidates due to insights into various teams’ financial capabilities and some players’ aspirations, prompting a re-evaluation of potential trades.

For example, the Cardinals may have explored trading Willson Contreras or Sonny Gray as they shift their focus towards player development and seek to reduce their payroll. Surprisingly, both players have expressed reluctance to waive their no-trade rights, even as the team pivots away from a win-now approach. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay, needing to cut costs, decided to trade from their starting rotation instead of moving Yandy Diaz or Brandon Lowe, both of whom are now anticipated to remain with the team. The Athletics might have considered trading Brent Rooker had he not accepted their extension offer, but he has since signed a five-year deal. These players, once on the initial trade list, are no longer viable options.

Given the latest developments, let’s take a closer look at some of the top players who could potentially change teams before Opening Day:

1. Marcus Stroman: Evaluate Trade Prospects Amid Yankees Rotation Changes

The Yankees may have been considering trading Stroman even before acquiring Max Fried, but their recent eight-year contract with the seasoned Braves ace has reshaped New York’s rotation to include Fried, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil, and Clarke Schmidt. Stroman, owed $18MM in 2025, now finds himself as the sixth starter in this lineup. His contract features a conditional player option, which he can activate upon reaching 140 innings pitched, securing an additional $18MM. The Yankees are open to covering part of Stroman’s salary to facilitate a trade. Despite a season where he pitched 154 2/3 innings with a 4.31 ERA, his struggles were primarily at home (5.31 ERA); he excelled on the road with a remarkable 3.09 ERA, away from the short porch of Yankee Stadium.

2. Nolan Arenado: Navigating Trade Challenges with No-Trade Clauses

Finding a suitable trade scenario for Arenado has proven challenging. He recently exercised his no-trade clause to block a move to the Astros, and several major market teams already have established third basemen. Smaller market teams are hesitant about the remaining three years and $74MM on his contract, especially with the Rockies covering $10MM. Arenado’s concerns about a rebuilding team’s long-term potential (e.g., Tigers, Royals) complicate matters. Reports from Katie Woo of The Athletic indicate stalled efforts to trade Arenado. Although the Red Sox are interested, they face significant roster hurdles. St. Louis remains eager to trade Arenado, but his control over the situation makes any deal uncertain.

3. Dylan Cease: Assessing Trade Viability Amid Changing Payroll Situations

Trading Cease might seem counterproductive for the Padres just a year after acquiring him, yet financial constraints have prompted a reevaluation. San Diego’s ownership transition has led to a need for payroll reduction. Uncharacteristically, the Padres have not engaged in any signings or trades this winter, despite pressing needs in left field, rotation, and designated hitter. Moving Cease could yield a controllable asset to address these gaps while alleviating his $13.75MM salary—funds that could be redirected toward immediate needs. As a free agent next winter, the Padres could offer him a qualifying deal, potentially yielding draft compensation in 2026. However, pressing priorities and limited resources necessitate timely decisions.

4. Luis Arraez: Exploring Trade Options for Elite Contact Hitter

Similar circumstances make Arraez a candidate for trade. As a free agent next season, the three-time batting champion is set to earn $14MM in 2025. While lacking in defensive prowess, power hitting, and speed, Arraez stands out for his exceptional contact rate, arguably making him the premier pure hitter in the game today. Trading him could provide the necessary flexibility to invest in other positions while potentially acquiring MLB-ready talent in return.

5. Luis Castillo: Balancing Rotation Strength with Financial Constraints

The Mariners prefer not to disrupt their strong rotation, yet financial restrictions loom large, with only $10-12MM available after signing Donovan Solano. Seeking multiple infielders throughout the winter, they’ve only added Solano, whose role will primarily be part-time first baseman while occasionally filling in at third and second base. Trading Castillo, who has three years remaining on a $68.75MM contract, would free up substantial resources for the Mariners. However, finding a suitable trade partner may prove challenging; a contender interested in Castillo would be unlikely to weaken its roster by trading away key players. Nevertheless, if the Mariners can identify a viable trade partner, they could unlock $30MM+ in available funds to enhance their infield and replace Castillo in the rotation.

6. Jordan Montgomery: Potential for Rebound Amid Depth Chart Changes

Montgomery may be a strong candidate for a rebound after a season marred by missing spring training and dealing with a knee injury, ultimately recording a 6.23 ERA across 18 starts. Prior to this, he showcased impressive numbers, amassing 524 1/3 innings with a 3.48 ERA, coupled with solid strikeout, walk, and ground-ball rates from 2021 to 2023. His $22.5MM salary for this season comes after exercising a player option. The Diamondbacks might have sought to trade him, but their unexpected acquisition of Corbin Burnes on a six-year contract has deepened their pitching staff, relegating Montgomery to the No. 7 starter role. With a club-record payroll projection of $194MM, shedding Montgomery’s salary could provide the necessary funds to add a key piece to their bullpen.

7. Christian Vazquez: Evaluating Trade Value Amid Catcher Depth Issues

Signed to a three-year, $30MM contract two offseasons ago, Vazquez’s performance has not aligned with expectations. Initially, he shared catching duties with Ryan Jeffers, but Jeffers has since claimed the majority of playing time. While Vazquez remains an elite defender, his offensive numbers have been disappointing, showcasing a .222/.265/.322 slash line (63 wRC+) over the past two seasons in Minnesota. With budget constraints and two new catchers added to the 40-man roster via trades, the Twins may find it challenging to offload his entire $10MM contract. However, glove-first catchers can still command $4-5MM on the market, allowing Minnesota to potentially offload a significant portion of his salary or negotiate a trade involving an overpriced reliever.

8. Chris Paddack: Assessing Trade Viability Following Recovery

On the opposite end of the trade spectrum for the Twins, Paddack’s $7.5MM salary appears reasonable given the escalating costs of starting pitchers in the open market. Although he posted a modest 4.99 ERA over 88 1/3 innings last season, it was his first full year back after a second Tommy John surgery. Paddack achieved a 20.6% strikeout rate along with a promising 10.7% swinging-strike rate and an impressive 5.5% walk rate. While he struggled to keep the ball in the park, he was also hindered by a .327 average on balls in play. Although his surplus value may not be overwhelming, the Twins could find sufficient value to move his entire contract while securing a reasonable return, especially with several in-house options available to fill in behind the established rotation of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Simeon Woods Richardson in the event of a Paddack trade.

9. Spencer Torkelson: Navigating Changing Roles within Tigers’ Roster

Once regarded as a future cornerstone, Torkelson now faces uncertainty about his role with the Tigers. Following the signing of Gleyber Torres to play second base, the team announced that second baseman Colt Keith would shift to first base, effectively displacing Torkelson. Despite President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris expressing faith in Torkelson’s right-handed bat against left-handers, “Tork” will struggle to find everyday at-bats at either first base or designated hitter. Corner outfielders Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, and Matt Vierling are also in the mix for DH opportunities. Harris has dismissed the notion of Torkelson transitioning to another position, leaving him with limited playing time. If another team expresses interest in acquiring Torkelson at a low cost, a trade could be plausible; however, he remains under team control for four more years and has an option left, so the Tigers are unlikely to part with him easily.

10. LaMonte Wade Jr.: Assessing Trade Opportunities in Giants’ Lineup

The Giants are actively seeking ways to enhance their lineup, and Wade presents an affordable option as he enters the final year of club control at $5MM. Over four seasons with San Francisco, he has compiled a .248/.352/.415 batting line. However, Wade struggles against left-handed pitching, lacks power against righties, and his sprint speed ranks in the seventh percentile, as noted by Statcast. Recently, Susan Slusser from the San Francisco Chronicle identified Wade as a potential trade asset while the Giants pursue a more powerful bat to bolster their lineup. While teams like the Astros, Yankees, and Nationals have already secured their first base needs, clubs like the Reds or even Wade’s former team, the Twins, could emerge as viable trade partners.

11. Steven Matz: Evaluating Trade Potential Amid Cardinals’ Roster Constraints

The Cardinals entered the offseason with intentions of trimming payroll and providing opportunities for younger players. However, no-trade clauses for Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, and the aforementioned Arenado have complicated these plans. With Contreras and Gray remaining with the team, and Arenado making his situation challenging, Matz’s contract may become a focal point for cost-saving measures. Despite posting a disappointing 5.08 ERA over 44 1/3 innings last season, Matz has drawn some interest, even though he is owed $12MM in 2025, the last year of his four-year deal with the Cardinals. Matz previously pitched 105 innings with a 3.86 ERA, showcasing a 21.8% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate in 2023. His contract may not significantly exceed what he would earn in free agency, allowing the Cardinals to potentially offload him for a nominal return and reallocate those innings to other pitchers.

12. Rhys Hoskins: Navigating Trade Value Following Injury-Impacted Season

When the Brewers signed Hoskins to a two-year, $34MM contract with an opt-out clause last offseason, they likely aimed to secure one productive season from the slugger before making a qualifying offer. After a promising start, where Hoskins hit .243/.345/.468 in the first two months, he struggled considerably, finishing the season with a .200/.282/.387 line over his last 350 plate appearances. Milwaukee now finds themselves committed to an $18MM salary for Hoskins, along with a $4MM buyout on a 2026 mutual option, which could hinder their ability to enhance the roster this offseason. If they can negotiate Hoskins’ salary down to the $6-8MM range, they may find a trade partner later in the offseason or during spring training as injuries arise across the league.

13. Alec Bohm: Reevaluating Trade Stance Amidst Ongoing Discussions

The Phillies have maintained a firm stance against shopping Bohm, often setting a high asking price in trade discussions. However, their engagement with various clubs suggests a willingness to at least consider offers. The intent to trade Bohm primarily revolves around reshaping an offense that has occasionally appeared stagnant. Although trade discussions have quieted, the recent additions of Max Kepler and Jesus Luzardo signal a potential shift in the team’s strategy. With President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski rarely remaining inactive, it’s conceivable that Bohm could find himself playing elsewhere if other teams sustain injuries this spring, provided the Phillies are willing to adjust their demands away from young pitchers with more control than Bohm has.

14. Triston Casas: Evaluating Trade Viability Amidst Rumors

As Casas approaches his 25th birthday, he has recorded a robust .256/.357/.480 line over the past two seasons, hitting 37 home runs in just 745 plate appearances. Despite his promising performance, he has surfaced in trade talks as Boston seeks young pitching from the Mariners. Speculation regarding Rafael Devers potentially moving to first base has fueled discussions about acquiring a third-base upgrade and trading Casas for pitching. Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow may entertain such proposals, especially given Boston’s links to both Arenado and Bregman. Yet, it’s crucial to assess how these moves would ultimately benefit the team. Casas possesses significant power and is capable against left-handed pitchers, making him a valuable asset in his own right, with arb eligibility extending through 2028.

15. Erick Fedde: Weighing Trade Opportunities Amidst Cardinals’ Youth Movement

Fedde deserves more recognition on this list; ideally, he should have been traded by now. The Cardinals announced an offseason shift towards focusing on player development, yet their attempts to trade Arenado have been unsuccessful. With payroll concerns still a factor, it seems unlikely they will be able to contend seriously. Fedde, earning a modest $7.5MM with free agency looming at season’s end, should be a valuable asset for a team seeking to contend. If the Cardinals aim to pivot towards a youth movement, they should explore trading Fedde for prospect help, as he’s unlikely to remain healthy or productive until the trade deadline. As noted by Anthony Franco, the Cardinals’ offseason strategy has been half-hearted and lacking in effectiveness.

16. Ryan Helsley: Maximizing Trade Value for Dominant Closer

All of the points made regarding Fedde apply to Helsley, perhaps even more so. Helsley is a dominant closer with a reasonable $8.2MM salary, making him a coveted asset for any contender. The Cardinals, who won 83 games last season and have not made significant roster improvements, could command a considerable return for Helsley. Trading him before the season allows the acquiring team the opportunity to extend a qualifying offer at season’s end, enhancing his trade value. Reports from St. Louis indicate plans to retain both Helsley and Fedde, but if the Cardinals aim to contend for a Wild Card spot, they should actively seek to strengthen their roster. Conversely, if they are focused on retooling, they must consider trading short-term assets. Holding Helsley until the deadline risks diminishing his trade value and introduces the potential for injury or performance declines, as relievers are notoriously unpredictable. The Cardinals appear caught in a dilemma, which is concerning.

17. Camilo Doval: Evaluating Trade Prospects After Closer Role Change

Doval lost his closer role late in the 2024 season, witnessing his walk rate surge from 9.3% in 2023 to 14.4% in 2024. Consequently, his ERA ballooned from 2.93 to 4.88. Nevertheless, Doval still boasts a fastball averaging over 99 mph on his cutter and has a strong ability to miss bats, recording a 28.8% strikeout rate even during a down year in 2024. Earning $4.525MM this season, Doval remains under team control for three more years. Teams are often hesitant to sell low on a power arm, but reports indicate that Doval has attracted interest from clubs seeking a closer. If the Giants opt to trade him, they could rightfully demand significant MLB talent in return.

18. Ryan Pressly: Navigating Trade Possibilities Amidst Astros’ Roster Changes

The Astros recently shook up their roster with the trade of Kyle Tucker to the Cubs, acquiring third baseman Isaac Paredes, righty Hayden Wesneski, and top prospect Cam Smith in the process. This move cleared the way for Houston to sign Christian Walker to a three-year deal. Currently, the team finds itself just over the luxury tax threshold, which owner Jim Crane is keen to avoid. The Astros have explored trading Pressly, whose $14MM salary poses an obstacle due to his no-trade clause. Few relievers can match Pressly’s exceptional track record. If Crane insists on reducing payroll, the Astros might consider trading outfielder Chas McCormick, backup catcher Victor Caratini, or utility player Mauricio Dubon. However, moving Pressly could yield the most significant salary savings and offer flexibility for further acquisitions, provided he agrees to waive his no-trade provision.

19. Starling Marte: Evaluating Trade Options Amid Age-Related Declines

The Mets have reportedly informed Marte of their intent to explore trade opportunities and have been willing to cover part of his remaining $19.5MM salary. However, no deals have materialized thus far. Once a dynamic base-stealing threat, the now-36-year-old Marte’s average sprint speed dropped below league average in 2024, according to Statcast. His outfield range has also fallen into the fifth percentile, although his arm strength remains in the 90th percentile. Marte recorded a .269/.327/.388 line—approximately 4% above average, per wRC+—over 370 plate appearances. While his full salary may be difficult for teams to absorb, he could be swapped for another burdensome contract or the Mets could agree to cover a significant portion of the deal to facilitate the trade. Given their high luxury tax penalties, every dollar saved effectively doubles in value.

20. Robert Suarez: Balancing Trade Viability and Contract Complexity

As noted in the cases of Cease and Arraez, the Padres are actively seeking to reduce payroll. They have considered offers for the 33-year-old Suarez (turning 34 in March). However, executing a trade will not be straightforward. Suarez is set to earn $10MM this season, with a two-year, $16MM player option next winter. He must exercise his 2026 and 2027 options simultaneously; otherwise, he will become a free agent. This creates a challenge for potential trade partners, as they must navigate the uncertainty of Suarez’s contract. If he performs well, he will likely decline the options and enter free agency. Conversely, if he struggles or suffers an injury, he may opt-in, leaving his new team with a mid-30s reliever they may not want. Nevertheless, Suarez has shown promise, pitching 65 innings with a 2.77 ERA, a 22.9% strikeout rate, a solid 6.2% walk rate, and a 41.8% ground-ball rate. His impressive average fastball velocity of 99.1 mph and a compelling 12.5% swinging-strike rate suggest there is still potential for further success.

Others Considered for Trade: Willi Castro (Twins), Jon Gray (Rangers), Mike Yastrzemski (Giants), Brett Baty (Mets), Taylor Ward (Angels), Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox), Jake McCarthy/Alek Thomas (D-backs), Mitch Haniger/Mitch Garver (Mariners)