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NFL Fantasy Football Week 1: Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Guide

NFL Fantasy Football Week 1: Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Guide

Greatest Denver Broncos Players: #48 Gene Mingo, Halfback

In our Week 1 fantasy football start ’em and sit ’em analysis, we provide insights that challenge conventional expert opinions, offering a refreshing perspective for your lineup decisions.


Welcome back to an exciting fourth season of Yays and Nays on Opta Analyst, where we dive deep into the world of fantasy football!

As always, our rankings and predictions are available on the website each week. These rankings will be updated regularly throughout the season, serving as your essential resource for decisions on waiver wire pickups and weekly starters.

If you’re new to Yays and Nays, each week we spotlight players that our fantasy football model identifies as being overvalued or undervalued compared to the general market consensus, giving you an edge in your fantasy league.

Here’s a quick overview of how our model operates. Now, with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs facing off against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in the NFL season opener, let’s jump right into our analysis.

Top Fantasy Football Picks: Week 1 Players Projected to Outperform Expert Consensus

Note: Our rankings are compared to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings are updated throughout the week (we retrieved these numbers on Wednesday). We are using PPR scoring unless stated otherwise.

Kirk Cousins, QB (ATL) vs PIT (ECR: 21, Our Rank: QB11, Projected Points: 16.51)

Two realities can coexist simultaneously. Firstly, Cousins suffered a significant Achilles injury last season, and his first game back will be with a new team against TJ Watt and the formidable Steelers defense. Secondly, before this injury, Cousins was arguably playing the best football of his career, consistently ranking as a top-10 quarterback.

The concerns surrounding Cousins’ recovery from the Achilles injury are valid for fantasy managers. However, he has never relied heavily on mobility to produce substantial fantasy points. In the eight games he played last season, Cousins rushed for only 25 total yards. Despite this, he managed to throw 18 touchdown passes while only throwing five interceptions, showcasing his ability to score. With a solid supporting cast around him, Cousins has the potential to achieve borderline top-10 quarterback numbers during his season debut against a defense that ranked in the bottom third for yards allowed per play and was also 29th in allowing 20+ yard receptions last season. In fact, Cousins has the highest projected passing yards for Week 1, positioning him as a solid QB1 option.

Chuba Hubbard, RB (CAR) vs NO (ECR: 30, Our Rank: RB17, Projected Points: 15.40)

Exploring the Week 1 projections from our model often reveals hidden gems—players who are underrated for various reasons. Chuba Hubbard fits this profile perfectly. It’s surprising how many fantasy managers may hesitate to start any Carolina Panthers players in Week 1, especially a player projected to be a backup once the highly talented rookie Jonathan Brooks returns to full health.

However, a closer examination of the data reveals a compelling argument for Hubbard. New head coach Dave Canales previously helped guide a Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense that saw Rachaad White finish as the RB4 last season. Between Weeks 13 and the end of the season, White had 116 carries—second most in the NFL. Would you believe us if we told you that Hubbard led the league with 120 carries during that same period?

NFL Fantasy Football Week 1: Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Guide

Further expanding the sample, Hubbard took over as the starting running back for the Panthers starting in Week 6 last season. In that stretch, he ranked as the RB19, with only three games below 10.5 PPR points. With an improved Bryce Young at quarterback and a firmer grip on the running back role, only five running backs are projected for more carries than Hubbard in this matchup. Although starting him might not feel like the best option, our model predicts that Hubbard will provide solid RB2 value against the New Orleans Saints in Week 1.

Drake London, WR (ATL) vs PIT (ECR: 16, Our Rank: WR7, Projected Points: 15.64)

As mentioned earlier, Cousins is projected to have the highest passing yards among all quarterbacks in Week 1. It’s no surprise that our model is equally optimistic about Drake London’s prospects this week.

Last season, there were 42 players who received at least 100 targets, and none of them had fewer than two touchdowns—except for London. Among 41 players with a minimum of 800 receiving yards, London also stood out for not scoring more than two touchdowns. From Week 5 onward, London amassed 779 receiving yards (projecting to a 1,100-yard season pace) yet failed to find the end zone.

In games where he received at least seven targets last season, London averaged 14.76 PPR points per game. If sustained over an entire season, that average would have placed him as WR13 last year. Plus, it’s essential to note that London’s primary quarterback last season was Desmond Ridder. Our model is confident that with significant improvements at quarterback, London is primed for a breakout season, starting with a strong showing in Week 1.

Joshua Palmer, WR (LAC) vs LV (ECR: 46, Our Rank: WR37, Projected Points: 11.00)

Let’s engage in a little exercise. Can you name every current Los Angeles Chargers player who has caught at least two touchdown passes from Justin Herbert?

Keenan Allen? Mike Williams? Austin Ekeler? Gerald Everett? All of them are now off the roster. In particular, the receiver positions have undergone changes with Allen and Williams being replaced by DJ Chark and rookie Ladd McConkey. Meanwhile, in seven career games against the Las Vegas Raiders, Herbert has averaged 289.4 passing yards per game with an impressive 15:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Essentially, we have an elite quarterback with only one receiver he has any chemistry and familiarity with. Yet, Palmer’s Week 1 ranking lingers in the nearly 50s range. The answer to that exercise question is Palmer. In deeper leagues, our model suggests that Palmer will provide excellent flex value, with potential for even more.

Fantasy Football Caution: Week 1 Players Projected to Underperform Expert Consensus

Tua Tagovailoa, QB (MIA) vs JAX (ECR: 12, Our Rank: QB20, Projected Points: 15.93)

Before delving into the reasons Tagovailoa finds himself on our “Nay” list, it’s important to note the narrow margins in fantasy projections. Cousins, ranked as our QB11, is projected to score only 0.58 points more than Tua, who is our QB20 for Week 1. Currently, we have 10 quarterbacks forecasted to score between 16.00 and 16.88 points. The difference between QB11 and QB20 on Fantasy Pros is merely 1.2 fantasy points.

In such a tight race, it’s crucial to trust your instincts. If you genuinely believe that Tua is a better choice than Cousins, then go with your gut. That said, there are concerns surrounding Tagovailoa. For starters, he had only two games last season where he rushed for more than eight yards. With no rushing upside, his fantasy production heavily relies on his passing performance.

Furthermore, Miami had a total of just two home games last season against teams that finished with a winning record. In those two contests, Tua averaged 233 passing yards, throwing for two touchdowns and two interceptions. This resulted in an average of just 12.7 fantasy points over those two games. Facing a Jacksonville Jaguars team that is expected to contend for a playoff position, Tagovailoa is a risky QB2 option this week.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB (NE) vs CIN (ECR: 20, Our Rank: RB32, Projected Points: 10.75)

Recently, new head coach Jarod Mayo revealed that rookie franchise quarterback Drake Maye has been outperforming veteran Jacoby Brissett in training camp. Though Mayo ultimately named Brissett as the Week 1 starter, this decision raises concerns, particularly for the running back who will be operating behind a struggling offensive line.

This concern is reflected in the model’s Week 1 projections. The silver lining for Stevenson’s fantasy owners is that he is projected for 16 carries, ranking 13th among running backs. However, the model forecasts him to average just 3.0 yards per carry, ranking him 31st in overall rushing yards projections.

Rhamondre Stevenson Week 1 projections

Combine this with a potential decline in his passing opportunities due to the addition of Antonio Gibson to the backfield, and Stevenson faces a challenging situation, even for a talented running back.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR (IND) vs. HOU (ECR: 11, Our Rank: WR20, Projected Points: 13.98)

Was there a more thrilling fantasy performance last season than Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson’s Week 2 outing against the Houston Texans? To summarize, he finished that game with 17.7 fantasy points despite playing only two snaps after the first quarter. In fact, he scored 17.6 fantasy points in just one quarter.

This is excellent news for the Colts; however, it presents a challenge for Pittman Jr. With Richardson back at quarterback in a Shane Steichen-led offense that previously produced remarkable rushing statistics for Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, the question arises: Is there room for anyone beyond Richardson and star running back Jonathan Taylor to generate elite fantasy numbers?

According to the model, it’s tough to project high performance for Pittman in this Week 1 AFC South showdown. Only Jayden Daniels is predicted for fewer completions than Richardson, and with such limited volume (projected for just 5.4 receptions), Pittman is likely to rank as a WR2 rather than approaching WR1 territory.


Looking for more players like Christian McCaffrey and Ja’Marr Chase? Be sure to check out our comprehensive fantasy football rankings. Enjoy your reading, and follow us on Instagram and X.

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