The current MLB free agent market has shown a notable disparity in its pace for position players compared to pitchers. While a total of 17 pitchers have inked contracts exceeding $5 million, only nine position players have accomplished the same, with five of those being catchers. Amid this unusual trend, the speculation surrounding one standout free agent—All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso—has surprisingly remained subdued.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Alonso ranks as the seventh-best free agent in this offseason’s highly anticipated Top 50 Free Agents list. He stands out as the premier first baseman available, and is arguably the second-best hitter overall, trailing only Juan Soto. Our analysis suggested that he would secure a lucrative five-year deal worth approximately $125 million. Yet, recent weeks have provided scant opportunities to discuss Alonso’s future, as the New York Mets have been the only franchise to consistently show interest in the two-time Home Run Derby champion. Their city rivals have also been mentioned in connection with Alonso.

Just a short time ago, Alonso would have been among the most coveted free agents in the league, with predictions for his contract being more straightforward. He is recognized as one of the most formidable (and durable) hitters in baseball, boasting an impressive career average of 43 home runs and 112 RBIs per 162 games. However, teams today consider a plethora of factors beyond just home runs and RBIs. They are increasingly reluctant to invest heavily based solely on past accomplishments. As Alonso approaches his 30th birthday, and with two consecutive seasons of diminished performance, it’s understandable why teams may hesitate to fulfill his expected nine-figure contract demands. Earlier this offseason, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted how difficult it is to predict Alonso’s upcoming contract value for the Top 50 Free Agents list.

Despite recent struggles, it’s impossible to overlook Alonso’s status as a top-tier power hitter in the league. Over the past two seasons, albeit less productive by his own standards, Alonso ranks fifth among all hitters with an impressive total of 80 home runs. His weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 121 during this timeframe indicates he has performed 21% better than the league average. Few players can match Alonso’s swing speed or the force with which he connects with the ball. Thus, it is anticipated that he will still command a substantial contract this offseason, even if he faces a longer wait for his market to truly develop.

Let’s delve into the potential teams vying for Alonso’s services.

Top Contenders for Pete Alonso’s Signature

Astros: The Astros have successfully cleared some payroll space (approximately $8.9 million) by trading star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs while acquiring third baseman Isaac Paredes in the process. Although the addition of Paredes doesn’t necessarily preclude Houston from pursuing Alex Bregman, since Paredes could transition to first base, this trade increases the likelihood that the Astros will seek a new first baseman. Houston has been in the market for a first baseman since opting to release José Abreu earlier this year. They have expressed interest in Christian Walker, but Alonso remains a viable target, particularly if Bregman signs elsewhere. The Astros reportedly extended a six-year, $156 million offer to Bregman earlier this offseason, which he declined. However, this indicates that GM Dana Brown possesses the financial resources necessary to secure a deal.

Mets: The Mets appear to be strong contenders to retain their homegrown power hitter. Winning the Juan Soto sweepstakes may have eased the pressure on David Stearns to pursue additional offensive upgrades, but signing Soto doesn’t eliminate the possibility of re-signing Alonso. The projected payroll for the team in 2025 remains significantly lower than it was during 2023 and 2024. While there may be a financial ceiling that even owner Steve Cohen will hesitate to breach, Stearns has a substantial budget at his disposal before any concerns arise. Furthermore, Stearns must consider how to fill the void left by Alonso and J.D. Martinez in both first base and designated hitter positions. Mark Vientos is a potential candidate for first base, but he played third base in 2024 and received poor defensive ratings. The Mets may benefit more if Vientos can excel in a position that holds greater defensive value. Recently, Cohen confirmed that the Mets are “still engaged” in contract negotiations with Alonso.

Nationals: There’s a reason why Tim Dierkes, Anthony Franco, and Darragh McDonald all predicted Alonso would land in Washington during our Top 50 Free Agents analysis. Several promising young talents on the Nationals roster made significant strides in 2024. This progress could motivate ownership and management to invest in a major acquisition as they aim to return to contention. Currently, Keibert Ruiz is the only player on the Nationals’ roster with a guaranteed contract, and RosterResource estimates the team’s 2025 payroll is currently $52 million lower than their final payroll in 2024.

Moreover, the first base position is devoid of established players in Washington. The duo of Joey Gallo and Joey Meneses, who collectively played over 100 games at first base last season, are no longer with the team. Juan Yepez stands as the most viable internal option for first base in 2025, but he has yet to demonstrate sufficient performance over three partial seasons to secure an everyday role. President of Baseball Operations Mike Rizzo has stated that the organization seeks middle-of-the-order bats, and Alonso would certainly fulfill that need.

Yankees: Alongside the Mets, the Yankees are the only other team that has been reliably associated with Alonso’s name. Early in November, GM Brian Cashman informed Mike Puma of the New York Post that he had engaged with agent Scott Boras regarding his illustrious client. Nevertheless, recent comments from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggested that the Yankees would prefer to pursue a first baseman on a shorter contract, prioritizing Walker instead. However, Alonso remains a potential option for the Yankees. This is true even after they acquired Cody Bellinger from the Cubs. Although Bellinger can play first base, his greater value may lie in the outfield, particularly allowing Aaron Judge to shift back to right field. Consequently, the Yankees still require a replacement for Anthony Rizzo at first base. Currently, Ben Rice, who posted a .171/.264/.349 line in 50 games as a rookie, and DJ LeMahieu, who hit .204/.269/.259 in his age-35 season, represent the best internal candidates.

With a projected payroll of $270 million for 2025 (according to RosterResource), the Yankees find themselves approximately $33 million below their final 2024 payroll estimate. Despite several new additions, including Bellinger, Max Fried, and Devin Williams, they still face the challenge of replacing a remarkable talent like Soto, particularly in the offensive department.

Potential Wildcard Teams for Pete Alonso’s Services

Blue Jays: The Blue Jays possess both financial flexibility and a strong desire to enhance their roster with star talent. While Alonso may not be at the top tier of their targets this offseason (which includes Soto, Fried, and Corbin Burnes), the Blue Jays may continue their pursuit until they secure a significant addition. Notably, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reported that “Everyone in the [Blue Jays] organization” believes the offense would greatly benefit from another “legitimate slugger.”

The only factor keeping the Blue Jays from being categorized as “likely suitors” is their current ownership of a superstar first baseman: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. However, it is conceivable that the two could share responsibilities at first base and designated hitter, with Alonso taking over at first if Guerrero departs through free agency after the 2025 season.

Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks showcased one of the most potent offenses in MLB last year, yet they lost two key hitters to free agency in Walker and Joc Pederson. Adding Alonso could significantly offset that loss in production. However, if Arizona intends to maintain a similar payroll in 2025, they only have an estimated $24 million available, according to RosterResource. This amount may not suffice for a serious pursuit of Alonso, especially if they aim to address other pressing needs this offseason. Nonetheless, GM Mike Hazen could potentially free up additional funds if he successfully negotiates a deal to offload Jordan Montgomery’s contract.

Giants: The new president of baseball operations, Buster Posey, appears determined to propel the Giants back into competitive contention swiftly. He has already secured Willy Adames and has shown interest in acquiring Burnes as well. While the focus may remain on pitching, if Posey is considering Burnes, it indicates he has the financial resources to pursue Alonso. LaMonte Wade Jr. served as San Francisco’s primary first baseman in 2024, but the team is reportedly open to trading him.

Reds: The Reds are the most unlikely contenders in this scenario. They currently lack a clear need for Alonso at first base, and their willingness to spend this offseason remains uncertain. Nevertheless, they could greatly benefit from additional offensive firepower if they aspire to contend in 2025. New manager Terry Francona might find a way to accommodate Alonso at first by shifting Spencer Steer to left field, Jeimer Candelario to third base, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to designated hitter. While the Cincinnati front office hasn’t definitively stated plans to increase payroll, they haven’t ruled it out either.

Tigers: Despite a strong finish in 2024, the Tigers haven’t provided their fanbase with much assurance that they will invest significantly to enhance the team this offseason. However, if they are going to spend— and they certainly should— Alonso would be an excellent addition to their lineup. President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris has acknowledged the need for another right-handed bat, and Spencer Torkelson’s position at first base is not secure. A dependable right-handed hitter like Alonso would represent a significant upgrade over Torkelson and would add balance to a lefty-heavy lineup in Detroit. Although the Tigers have not been big spenders recently, they have previously operated with higher payrolls.

Teams with Low Probability of Signing Alonso

Angels: The Angels have been active this offseason; however, first base does not appear to be a priority for them. Former first-round pick Nolan Schanuel had a lackluster performance during his first full season in the majors, yet it seems the Angels are not ready to abandon their young first baseman just yet. Meanwhile, Jorge Soler is expected to serve as the designated hitter, with Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout, and Travis d’Arnaud potentially also filling that role.

Athletics: The Athletics could theoretically make room for Alonso at first base or designated hitter by shifting Brent Rooker to the outfield and having Tyler Soderstrom catch more frequently, but this scenario is far from ideal. While they may need to spend to avoid an MLBPA grievance, there are likely more efficient ways to allocate those funds.

Braves: With Matt Olson firmly stationed at first base and Marcell Ozuna as their designated hitter, the Braves have no current need or capacity for Alonso within their roster.

Brewers: The Brewers have expressed interest in at least one veteran first baseman this offseason; according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, they are targeting Paul Goldschmidt. However, they typically do not pursue high-priced free agents like Alonso. Milwaukee hasn’t signed anyone for more than $35 million or longer than three years since Lorenzo Cain in 2018. Even a modest acquisition like Goldschmidt might require them to offload the Rhys Hoskins contract.

Cardinals: Willson Contreras will be the Cardinals’ starting first baseman moving forward. Even if that were not the case, St. Louis is unlikely to entertain any long-term free-agent contracts this offseason.

Cubs: Chicago made a significant offensive addition recently by trading for Tucker. To accommodate Alonso, the Cubs would likely need to trade either first baseman Michael Busch or expected designated hitter Seiya Suzuki. Following the trade of Bellinger to the Yankees, there are no indications that they plan to make such moves.

Dodgers: The Dodgers have even less need for Alonso than the Braves, thanks to their MVP first baseman Freddie Freeman and MVP designated hitter Shohei Ohtani.

Guardians: When the Guardians have spent significantly in free agency, it’s often on defensively limited power hitters such as Josh Bell, Yonder Alonso, and Edwin Encarnacion. A contract for Pete Alonso would represent the most substantial investment this front office has ever made. Furthermore, Alonso would only fit into the Guardians’ plans if they traded current first baseman Josh Naylor, which seems counterproductive given Naylor’s projected $12 million salary.

Mariners: The Mariners are searching for a right-handed first baseman, and Alonso would undoubtedly provide a much-needed offensive upgrade for a team that struggled to score in 2024. However, their reported interests in players like Carlos Santana and Justin Turner indicate they may not be seeking a major free-agent addition. The Mariners might increase their payroll in 2025, but signing a high-profile name like Alonso still appears improbable. They haven’t signed a hitter to a contract exceeding $25 million since Nelson Cruz a decade ago.

Marlins: While the Marlins could benefit from acquiring Alonso, they are unlikely to pursue any free agents unless they are one-year stopgaps or veterans to trade at the deadline.

Orioles: GM Mike Elias has made a significant addition by signing Tyler O’Neill to replace Anthony Santander. This has created a bit of a logjam at first base and designated hitter, with Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, and Heston Kjerstad all vying for playing time. While Elias may make a trade to alleviate this situation, Baltimore’s payroll is already significantly higher than last year’s, making another big signing unlikely.

Padres: The Padres could accommodate Alonso, particularly if they trade Luis Arraez, and they would benefit from a powerful bat to replace Jurickson Profar. However, POBO A.J. Preller is facing tight payroll limitations this offseason. Even for Preller, who often surprises the league, Alonso does not seem like a feasible target.

Phillies: Similar to the Braves and Dodgers, the Phillies have no room for Alonso, as their two best hitters, Bryce Harper (first base) and Kyle Schwarber (designated hitter), occupy the positions he would fill.

Pirates: Like the Nationals, the Pirates are a young team on the rise that could benefit from a veteran presence at first base. However, unlike Washington, the Pirates have not traditionally been active in the free agent market. They are likely planning to utilize recent acquisition Spencer Horwitz at first base in 2025.

Rangers: With the addition of Jake Burger, the Rangers currently lack a place for Alonso in their lineup. Furthermore, they aim to remain below the luxury tax threshold in 2025, which limits their financial flexibility. Although first baseman Nathaniel Lowe has surfaced in trade rumors this offseason, it would not make sense for Texas to part with him to acquire Alonso, as both have demonstrated similar productivity over the past three seasons. Additionally, the Rangers reportedly seek a left-handed bat, making a right-handed hitter like Alonso an unsuitable fit.

Rays: Even if the Rays were to take the bold step of signing a top free agent to a nine-figure contract, Alonso would likely not be their target. According to wRC+, Tampa Bay’s cost-controlled first baseman Yandy Díaz has outperformed Alonso at the plate over the last three seasons.

Red Sox: The Red Sox already have funds available but face a crowded first base and designated hitter situation. Rafael Devers, known for his defensive struggles at third, has been considered for a move to first base. However, with Triston Casas at first and Masataka Yoshida expected to absorb most DH at-bats, rumors have circulated about Casas being on the trading block. Signing Alonso could complicate an already congested situation.

Rockies: While it’s not entirely out of the question for the Rockies to make a splash—this is the same organization that signed Kris Bryant to a $182 million deal—they have shown no inclination to pursue any top-tier free agents this offseason. Following Charlie Blackmon’s retirement, Bryant is likely to take on most of the DH duties in 2025, while the Rockies appear eager to assess Michael Toglia at first base.

Royals: Although the Royals could benefit from an offensive boost, they are unlikely to allocate the necessary funds to acquire Alonso. Additionally, they already have a full-time first baseman in Vinnie Pasquantino. With the presence of players like Jonathan India and Salvador Perez on the roster, Kansas City is not actively seeking a full-time designated hitter.

Twins: The Twins would benefit