Recently, we delved into the NFL success rate for quarterbacks selected in Round 1 of the draft, revealing that only a mere 37.2% have emerged as strong starters or better since 2010. Now, we shift our focus to the quarterbacks who were drafted on Day 2 during the same timeframe. This analysis aims to provide insights into how well these players have performed and whether they can also transition into effective starters in the league.

Insights into Day 2 Quarterbacks: Performance and Potential

2010

Round 2

No. 48 — Jimmy Clausen (Carolina Panthers)

Round 3

No. 85 — Colt McCoy (Cleveland Browns)

2011

Round 2

No. 35 — Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals)
No. 36 — Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers)

Round 3

No. 74 — Ryan Mallett (New England Patriots)

2012

Round 2

No. 57 — Brock Osweiler (Denver Broncos)

Round 3

No. 75 — Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)
No. 88 — Nick Foles (Philadelphia Eagles)

2013

Round 2

No. 39 — Geno Smith (New York Jets)

Round 3

No. 73 — Mike Glennon (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

2014

Round 2

No. 36 — Derek Carr (Oakland Raiders)
No. 62 — Jimmy Garappolo (New England Patriots)

2015

Round 2

None

Round 3

No. 75 — Garrett Grayson (New Orleans Saints)
No. 89 — Sean Mannion (St. Louis Rams)

2016

Round 2

No. 51 — Christian Hackenberg (New York Jets)

Round 3

No. 91 — Jacoby Brissett (New England Patriots
No. 93 — Cody Kessler (Cleveland Browns)

2017

Round 2

No. 52 — DeShone Kizer (Cleveland Browns)

Round 3

No. 87 — Davis Webb (New York Giants)
No. 104 — C.J. Beathard (San Francisco 49ers)

2018

Round 2

None

Round 3

No. 76 — Mason Rudolph (Pittsburgh Steelers)

2019

Round 2

No. 42 — Drew Lock (Denver Broncos)

Round 3

No. 100 — Will Grier (Carolina Panthers)

2020

Round 2

No. 53 — Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles)

Round 3

None

2021

Round 2

No. 64 — Kyle Trask (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Round 3

No. 66 — Kellen Mond (Minnesota Vikings)
No. 67 — Davis Mills (Houston Texans)

2022

Round 2

None

Round 3

No. 74 — Desmond Ridder (Atlanta Falcons)
No. 86 — Malik Willis (Tennessee Titans)
No. 94 — Matt Corral (Carolina Panthers)

2023

Round 2

No. 33 — Will Levis (Tennessee Titans)*

Round 3

No. 68 — Hendon Hooker (Detroit Lions)

Comprehensive Analysis of Day 2 Quarterbacks

Since 2010, a total of 32 quarterbacks have been drafted on Day 2. To categorize their performance, I utilized the same tier system as the one applied to Round 1 quarterbacks, which includes Hall of Famers, Franchise QBs, and Solid starters. I also introduced a category for Solid backups and occasional starters. Our primary focus remains on identifying quarterbacks who fit into the ‘solid starter’ tier or higher, as this indicates their potential impact on the game.

Here’s how the statistics break down for these quarterbacks.

Future Hall of Famers: 1 (Wilson)
Franchise QBs: 1 (Hurts)
Solid beginners: 3 (Dalton, Kaepernick, Carr)
Solid backups/occasional beginners: (Foles, Smith, Glennon, Garappolo, Brissett, Rudolph, Lock, Mills, Ridder)
*Levis is To Be Determined

The examples of Wilson and Hurts illustrate that it is indeed possible to discover a top-tier quarterback on Day 2 of the draft, though such occurrences are relatively rare. While the debate about Wilson’s potential Hall of Fame status is valid, our focus here is on quantifying how many of these quarterbacks successfully land in the ‘solid starter’ category or above, which speaks volumes about their value in the league.

Out of the 32 quarterbacks selected on Day 2, only 5 have been classified as ‘solid starters’ or better, which equates to a mere 15.6%. In contrast, our earlier examination of quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 revealed that 37.2% achieved a similar status. This stark difference highlights the challenges faced when relying on Day 2 quarterbacks to become standout players.

This significant drop in success rate from Day 1 to Day 2 showcases that while the NFL may struggle to accurately identify and develop Round 1 quarterbacks, teams are still more likely to secure a quality starter by selecting from the first round, rather than gambling on Day 2 prospects, which presents a higher risk of underperformance.