During this week’s Winter Meetings in Dallas, agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman engaged with the media, providing insights into various pressing topics, particularly focusing on the promising future of newly posted right-hander Roki Sasaki. As the 23-year-old ace of Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki has now opened negotiations with all major league teams, and Wolfe’s commentary was crucial for understanding the landscape surrounding this talented pitcher.

Due to his young age, Sasaki must adhere to Major League Baseball’s international amateur signing guidelines. This means he is restricted to signing a minor league contract and receiving a bonus that aligns with his team’s league-specific bonus pool limits. If Sasaki had opted to wait two more years before entering the MLB, he would have turned 25 and qualified as an amateur, potentially securing a lucrative contract comparable to that of fellow countryman and current Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who recently signed for 12 years and $325 million.

When questioned about Sasaki’s decision to pursue a posting at this time instead of waiting to become a true free agent, potentially forfeiting hundreds of millions, Wolfe revealed he has been asked this question by numerous individuals and endeavored to provide a thoughtful response.

“It’s a difficult question to answer. Some of it is tied to Japanese culture, while other aspects reflect Roki Sasaki’s personal views. There are no certainties in baseball, and through Roki’s perspective, life also lacks absolutes. He does not take anything for granted. It’s not a foregone conclusion, as some baseball observers assume, that two years from now he’ll secure a contract like Yamamoto’s. Baseball can be unpredictable, as evidenced by the injuries pitchers often face. Sasaki has previously endured two shoulder injuries and an oblique injury, which illustrates that things don’t always progress as one hopes.”

“Furthermore, it has always been Roki’s aspiration to join the major leagues, stemming from his school days. He has idolized players such as Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, and Daisuke Matsuzaka. This dream has only intensified after participating in the World Baseball Classic, where being around major league talent solidified his desire to pursue this path as soon as possible.”

Regarding the factors Sasaki may prioritize during his free agency, Wolfe remained somewhat vague, noting that they have not yet delved deeply into those discussions. Sasaki’s primary focus has been whether he would be posted at all. Wolfe mentioned that a number of teams have already submitted presentations for Sasaki, although in-person meetings have not yet commenced. He has personally reviewed “three or four” of these presentations but expects additional submissions. When asked about the number of teams that scouted Sasaki during the past season in Japan, Wolfe confirmed that at least half the league had shown interest.

Wolfe refrained from naming specific teams that had submitted presentations or scouted Sasaki personally. The immediate task for Sasaki will be to familiarize himself with the various teams, organizations, and cities he is considering for his future. He is scheduled to arrive in the United States shortly, and after assessing the introductory presentations from interested teams, Sasaki and Wolfe will begin hosting teams for initial in-person meetings at a centralized location starting next week. Further rounds of team visits, possibly in the cities of the finalists, will be organized later. However, Sasaki also intends to return to Japan for a week or two during the upcoming holiday season.

When asked if Sasaki might contemplate joining a small market team, Wolfe indicated that this could be a possibility, but he stressed that he had not yet confirmed this with his client:

“Absolutely. There’s a valid argument suggesting that a small- or mid-market team could provide a more advantageous environment for him, especially considering his transition from Japan and his previous challenging experiences with media scrutiny. This setting might serve as a gentler introduction. However, I cannot definitively say whether this will be the case, as I haven’t had the opportunity for an in-depth discussion with him about it yet.”

Throughout the conversation, Wolfe highlighted the media treatment of Sasaki in Japan, describing it as “in my personal opinion, a bit unfair,” and candidly admitting that it has, at times, negatively affected the young pitcher:

“There has been considerable negativity directed at him in the media for expressing his desire to play in MLB at such a young age. In Japan, this is often viewed as disrespectful and contrary to cultural norms. Numerous false rumors have circulated about him and his family, which have been detrimental to his mental well-being.”

Wolfe also stressed that Sasaki’s decision regarding his career path will not solely revolve around short-term financial gains:

“Given the minimal disparity in bonus pool amounts, my counsel to him is to avoid letting that be the primary factor in his decision-making process. The long-term trajectory of his career is where he will ultimately realize his financial rewards, so it’s vital to consider all aspects rather than rushing into a short-term choice.”

Sasaki was officially posted for major league teams on December 9, initiating a 45-day window for negotiations with MLB clubs. He must finalize a contract by January 23. Wolfe indicated that the signing is likely to occur after January 15 to align with the 2025 international free agency period, set to commence on that date. While Sasaki’s choice will not be purely financially driven, Wolfe clarified that MLB aims to maintain a “level playing field” to ensure that both Sasaki and his former team can achieve the most advantageous agreement possible. This was a key reason for the formal posting on December 9, allowing Sasaki to extend his free agency process into next year when all 30 MLB teams will have greater international resources available.

The Chiba Lotte Marines will face a challenging situation regardless. Under the NPB/MLB posting agreement, former teams of NPB players receive a release fee equivalent to 20% of the contract’s first $25 million, 17.5% of the next $25 million, and 15% of any additional funds. For instance, in Yamamoto’s case, his previous club received an astounding $54.375 million release fee from the Dodgers. Since Sasaki is expected to sign for a hard-capped bonus likely below $10 million, the Marines will probably only receive a release fee of under $2 million.

Sasaki has taken the mound in parts of four NPB seasons, accumulating 414 2/3 innings with a remarkable 2.02 ERA, a striking 32.4% strikeout rate, and a commendable 5.6% walk rate. Any team that secures his signature will have control over him for a minimum of six seasons. Due to provisions in the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, he cannot sign an immediate extension following his minor league deal, as contracts perceived as circumventing the CBA will not be accepted by the commissioner’s office. Wolfe pointed out that MLB teams are not permitted to guarantee Sasaki a position on the big league roster at the time of signing, nor can they negotiate an extension prematurely.

In theory, Sasaki could sign an extension later in his MLB career, possibly more than a year or two from now, but Wolfe countered the idea that they would be inclined to pursue that. “If he performs exceptionally well, the leverage would shift in our favor, making it less appealing for us to agree to a long-term extension.”