The question on everyone’s mind is: Can any player halt the unstoppable momentum of Jannik Sinner?

Throughout the Australian Open, no competitor has posed a serious challenge to Sinner, and now he faces another formidable opponent in Ben Shelton, a young underdog eager to upset the defending champion. Sinner’s journey through the tournament has been largely smooth, with only a few minor challenges, including heat issues during a four-set victory against Holger Rune in the fourth round. Aside from dropping a single set to Tristan Schoolkate in the second round, Sinner has expertly navigated his way past tough opponents like Nicolas Jarry, Marcos Giron, and Alex de Minaur. His recent match against De Minaur was a display of dominance, as he triumphed with a stunning score of 6-3, 6-2, 6-1, improving his head-to-head record against the Australian to 10-0, while boasting an impressive 23-1 win-loss ratio in sets.

It’s essential to recognize the significance of such a decisive victory against a player like De Minaur. This matchup was particularly challenging for the Australian, demonstrating the stark contrast in styles. In contrast, Shelton presents a different dynamic; not only does he possess the necessary power to challenge Sinner, but he also carries the mental fortitude required to compete at this elite level.

Shelton’s historical record against the world No. 1 isn’t particularly strong, but it’s also not a cause for despair. The American has managed to secure one victory out of five encounters, with notable matches including a 2-6, 6-3, 7-6(5) win at the 2023 Shanghai Masters, followed by a narrow defeat in Vienna and a series of tough matches in 2024. All five of their meetings have featured tiebreakers, showcasing the competitive nature of their rivalry. Their most recent clash occurred last fall in Shanghai, where Sinner emerged victorious once again with a score of 6-4, 7-6(1).

Shelton has proven his mettle by defeating players such as Brandon Nakashima, Pablo Carreno Busta, Lorenzo Musetti, Gael Monfils, and Lorenzo Sonego. Ranked as the world No. 20, he has faced nothing but tough challenges, yet he has strategically conserved energy by steering clear of any five-set matches. In his third Grand Slam quarterfinal, he successfully overcame Sonego with a score of 6-4, 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(4), marking his second appearance in a Grand Slam semi-final (the first being at the 2023 U.S. Open, where he lost to Novak Djokovic).

Shelton’s explosive serve and aggressive playing style, combined with his enjoyment of high-pressure scenarios, position him as a potential threat to Sinner in their upcoming match. However, Sinner is no ordinary opponent; he is the best player in the world. Since his loss to Shelton in Shanghai two years ago, Sinner has posted an astounding record of 91 wins to just 7 losses, including major titles at the previous year’s tournaments in Melbourne and New York.

While Shelton is unlikely to go down without a fight—he has the capability to push Sinner to tiebreakers—Sinner’s exceptional return of serve, steadfast baseline defense, and comprehensive all-court skills should ultimately wear down an opponent who has already spent a grueling 14 hours and 55 minutes on the court during this tournament.

Pick: Sinner in 3