During the 2023 MLB season, the Braves not just controlled the league in practically every offending classification, however they likewise attained impressive and historical numbers. However, their efficiency took an obvious dip in 2024, landing them in a more typical position compared to the previous year. This decrease can be credited to a mix of aspects, consisting of a regression to the mean and a series of injuries that sidelined essential gamers like Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy, and Austin Riley for considerable parts of the season. As we look ahead, it’s sensible to expect that a completely healthy Braves lineup will likely discover themselves carrying out at a level that is much better than their frustrating 2024 season however not rather at the heights of their 2023 accomplishments. Despite these expectations, the early indications of the 2025 season reveal the Braves battling with a low wRC+ of 82, raising issues that 2024‘s efficiency may not be an abnormality however rather a sign of an uncomfortable pattern. Although it’s still early in the season—particularly with Acuña yet to launching—an analysis of batted ball and swing information, in addition to changes in opposing pitching methods, might clarify how pitchers have actually acquired a benefit over the Braves’ players.

If the plain contrast in efficiency in between 2023 and 2024 was simply a reflection of random changes within the Braves‘ real skill level, we would anticipate to observe some degree of luck affecting their batted ball results. This would cause inconsistencies in between their anticipated stats and their genuine numbers. However, the table listed below shows that their anticipated stats line up carefully with their real efficiency, recommending a much deeper concern:

To much better comprehend the production inconsistencies, we can examine the quality and frequency of the contact made by the Braves. In 2024, the group made considerably less contact in general, which appeared in their reduced walk rate and increased strikeout rate. Additionally, when they did make contact, metrics such as typical exit speed, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate show that the quality of contact was inferior compared to previous years. Their fly ball rate increased, as did their typical launch angle, recommending they were striking more balls into the air. While this can be useful, the combined boost in fly balls with decreased production requires a better take a look at the circulation of launch angles. This is vital due to the fact that, eventually, a greater launch angle can just cause quickly catchable fly balls. Utilizing the launch angle categories from Baseball Savant, the table listed below shows that the 2024 Braves attained a comparable rate of preferable middle band launch angles as their 2023 equivalents, despite the fact that their typical launch angle increased due to a reduced occurrence of topping the ball:

Transitioning from topping the ball to getting under it represents a shift in the nature of the concern, however it doesn’t completely represent the general decrease in production. This might show a modification in how opposing pitchers are planning versus the Braves’ players. To gain insight into this phenomenon, let’s analyze the circulation of pitch types dealt with by the Atlanta lineup:

No considerable modifications in method are seen in the pitch type circulation. However, when we dig much deeper into pitch place, we can discover modifications that might have added to the Braves getting under the ball more. To prevent frustrating you with extreme information, I’ll highlight the most significant year-over-year distinctions. In 2024, the Braves experienced a boost in fastballs—both four-seamers and sinkers—in the upper third of the strike zone. Meanwhile, sliders and splitters, which are normally intended lower, were more often found down and out of the strike zone. Although the general shift in pitch place makes up a small change, impacting around 5% of the pitches tossed to the lineup, it still marks a considerable modification in how pitchers approach the Braves compared to other groups. In 2023, Braves players were most likely to deal with fastballs raised in the zone and sliders situated lower than their league equivalents, however by 2024, this pattern had actually reversed.

In connection to this, the Braves’ runs above typical per 100 pitches dealt with, classified by pitch type, expose that their most significant efficiency decreases from 2023 to 2024 happened versus four-seamers, sinkers, and sliders:

What could discuss the shift in pitchers selecting more pitches targeted at the upper part of the zone or those that miss out on the lower zone entirely? This modification might be carefully connected to the common swing courses showed by players in the Braves lineup. An essential element of Statcast’s bat tracking information—less plainly included on a gamer’s Baseball Savant profile however highlighted in the FanGraphs database—is the attack angle. This measurement catches the angle of the bat worrying the ground at the minute of contact with the ball. A favorable attack angle suggests an upward swing, while an unfavorable one recommends a down slice. In 2024, the typical attack angle for Braves players was 1.15 degrees, connecting them with the Cubs for the 3rd greatest in the league, just tracking behind the Red Sox at 1.20 degrees and the Mariners at 2.02 degrees. The league typical attack angle in 2015 was a simple 0.13 degrees. This details highlights the Braves’ disposition towards players who use uppercut swings.

The uppercut swing itself isn’t naturally excellent or bad; its understanding has actually developed considerably over the previous years. In earlier years, traditional knowledge slammed the uppercut swing due to its association with a greater strikeout rate and lower contact rates. However, with improvements in comprehending the relative worth of various kinds of batted balls—such as the increased worth of fly balls compared to ground balls—the uppercut swing has actually ended up being more accepted and even beneficial.

As players adjusted their swings, so too did the methods of pitchers targeting them. In the late 2000s and early 2010s, the sinker was preferred for producing ground balls, however this altered with the increase of the uppercut swing. As players started to loft sinkers, the four-seam fastball, with its increasing action, acquired prominence as the favored pitch, particularly when tossed at the upper part of the zone. In current years, pitching techniques have actually ended up being less consistent, progressing to highlight the distinct strengths of specific pitchers. Consequently, players today deal with a larger range of pitch types and areas, unless they show a particular weak point. While an uppercut swing isn’t a specific weak point, it can turn into one if it ends up being exceedingly high, as increasing launch angles can ultimately cause decreasing returns.

Among the gamers in the Braves‘ 2024 lineup with the most severe typical attack angles (minimum 100 batted ball occasions) were Adam Duvall (7.72 degrees), Marcell Ozuna (3.11 degrees), Ozzie Albies (2.97 degrees), Jarred Kelenic (1.93 degrees), and Orlando Arcia (1.53 degrees). Of these gamers, just Ozuna attained a favorable wRC+ (154), most likely due to his greater rate of difficult contact, which surpassed that of the other uppercut swingers on the group by 10-20%. The other players, doing not have uppercut swings, likewise underperformed compared to their 2023 stats, however they did so to a lower degree (with the exception of Acuña and Matt Olson, who dealt with the greatest drop-offs after excellent seasons in 2023).

Examining league-wide attack angle stats shows the difficulties dealt with by players with severe uppercut swings. The leading entertainers in this classification typically include irregular players who set out often, such as Joey Gallo (who is no longer in the league), Davis Schneider, Nolan Gorman, and Jake Rogers. However, some gamers have actually effectively leveraged this swing design to their benefit, like Jose Altuve, Rhys Hoskins, and Isaac Paredes. These players tend to set out less often compared to their uppercut-swinging peers, showcasing their capability to change their attack angle situationally as required.

While bat tracking information is still reasonably brand-new, we do not have attack angle stats for 2023, leaving us unpredictable whether the Braves utilized more level swings that year or if they were just gaining from more beneficial pitches, or a mix of both aspects. Looking ahead, even if the 2025 Braves preserve their uppercut propensities and pitchers continue to challenge them in the upper zone, it’s not likely that they will continue to fail offensively. As suggested earlier, the Braves’ real results have actually regularly lined up with their anticipated results throughout both 2023 and 2024. Currently, the group’s wOBA sits at .288 with an xwOBA of .316, just 7 points behind their xwOBA from 2024. This recommends that, at worst, they are on track to duplicate last season’s efficiency. Additionally, the Braves have actually generated a brand-new striking coach this offseason, most likely adjusting their methods to neutralize the changes made by pitchers, leading the way for prospective enhancements in their method, whether that includes improving their swing mechanics or finding out to prevent pitches that do not match their striking design.