Last season, Victor Scott II emerged with the St. Louis Cardinals amid a whirlwind of excitement, having stolen an impressive 94 bases in the minors the year prior. His combination of elite defensive skills in center field and a respectable batting line made him a player to watch. However, his transition to the major leagues was far from smooth, as he recorded a disappointing batting average of .179/.219/.283 in just 50 games before being sent back to Triple-A, a level he had bypassed during his rapid ascent. In the minors, he continued to face challenges, indicating a need for significant adjustment in his game.

Fast forward to this year, Scott has returned to the major leagues, albeit with much lower expectations compared to last season. Remarkably, just a month into the current season, he appears to have transformed into a vastly improved hitter. His approach at the plate has changed significantly; he is now walking more often, striking out less frequently, and achieving a higher batting average due to an increase in line drives. Additionally, he is excelling on the bases and defensively, boasting a flawless 9-for-9 record in stolen bases. While last season’s performance was deemed unplayable, this year’s version of Scott resembles a lively upgrade reminiscent of Kevin Kiermaier. The question remains: is this new version of Scott here to stay? A thorough analysis of his performance metrics might provide some insights.

My primary focus regarding Scott revolves around his ability to get on base. This aspect is crucial to his game; once he reaches first base, he effectively becomes a threat to steal second. However, the challenge lies in the fact that players cannot steal first base, making it a critical juncture in his offensive strategy. In 2024, opposing pitchers employed a straightforward tactic: they relentlessly challenged the strike zone, daring Scott to respond. This aggressive approach likely contributed to his dismal 3.9% walk rate, as he found himself in favorable 1-0 counts only about a third of the time. Similarly, he was only able to reach two or more balls in the count approximately one-third of his plate appearances.

While there are some major league players who thrive despite frequently working from behind in the count, they typically possess an elite compensatory skill set. Examples include Luis Arraez with his exceptional contact ability, Jake Burger with his power, and Bo Bichette with his inherent feel for hitting. In reality, most hitters who consistently fall behind in the count and rarely walk are generally not effective. Pitchers tend to avoid giving them advantageous counts, resulting in a roster of low-power defensive specialists that pitchers can afford to challenge without fear.

However, 2025 has brought about a significant shift in Scott’s performance metrics. He is now getting ahead in the count to a 1-0 position nearly half the time, while also reaching two or more balls in a count at a remarkable 50% rate. These statistics indicate a drastic change from his previous season, placing him in the company of players like LaMonte Wade Jr., Lars Nootbaar, and Justin Turner. This central transformation in his approach has led to a remarkable increase in his walk rate, which has doubled, alongside a notable decrease in strikeouts. More than half the time he makes contact with the ball, he is doing so while ahead in the count, showcasing a substantial improvement from last year. If Scott can maintain this momentum, the combination of on-base percentage, speed, and defensive skills could make him a valuable asset to his team.

It is evident that for batters like Scott, the increased frequency of getting ahead in the count relies, at least in part, on the pitchers’ approach. So far this year, pitchers have shown a tendency to be more cautious when facing him:

Last year, when pitchers gained an advantage in the count, they were relentless in their approach against Scott, as indicated by a disheartening 21.1% heart rate. In stark contrast, his current 12.5% heart rate is astoundingly low; only one player in baseball experienced fewer middle-middle pitches when behind in the count last year, and that was Javier Báez, who is avoided not because of fear but due to his propensity to swing at pitches outside the strike zone.

However, does this imply that Scott’s improvement is solely due to pitchers miscalculating their strategy against him? I believe it is not the case. He has made significant adjustments to his gameplay that seem to be yielding positive results. While I anticipate that pitchers will eventually start attacking him more aggressively in the strike zone, it is encouraging to see that Scott has already adapted his approach to capitalize on those in-zone pitches.

What should a batter do when presented with a fastball in the strike zone? The answer is simple: crush it, especially with fewer than two strikes on the count. This is the prime opportunity to attack. In 2024, Scott demonstrated this philosophy by achieving an average swing speed of 69.7 mph, which was 0.6 mph faster than his typical swing speed. This makes logical sense—he swung harder when faced with hittable pitches where a miss would not result in an out. Interestingly, in 2025, his swing speed on these fastballs before two strikes has decreased by 2.5 mph. However, the results have been intriguing; he is making contact with these pitches better than ever:

While this trend may not appear sustainable in the long run—and truthfully, it likely isn’t—what stands out is Scott’s increased success in hitting the ball in the air against fastballs. Last season, despite being classified as a fly ball hitter, he struggled to lift fastballs effectively. His 44% groundball rate against fastballs was higher than the league average, indicating a struggle with hitting the harder pitches. However, this year, he has adjusted his approach and is achieving greater success in elevating fastballs, a significant shift in his performance.

Any seasoned hitting coach will tell you that the key to success lies in the ‘elevate and celebrate’ philosophy, which emphasizes punishing fastballs rather than secondary pitches. Hitters often excel by taking breaking balls and driving fastballs with authority. Scott previously struggled to lift fastballs, often hitting them into the ground while making better contact with breaking balls. Last season, he recorded hard contact on only 16% of his swings against fastballs, compared to just 6.3% against secondary pitches. This trend has continued into 2025, as he has managed hard contact on 14.3% of his swings against fastballs while only achieving 4.6% against secondary offerings. Notably, he seems to have recognized that weak contact in the air was not yielding results and is now focusing on making better contact with hard pitches.

One might argue that Scott’s profile suggests he should focus more on grounders than fly balls, especially considering his remarkable speed that allows him to reach first base quickly. However, the statistics tell a different story. When Scott hits ground balls, he maintains a .208 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and shows little power. Conversely, when he elevates the ball, he is batting .354 with a .323 BABIP, demonstrating that he can create extra-base hits. Although he may not have traditional home run power, his speed allows him to easily convert singles into doubles:

While some plays may seem fluky, Scott’s speed is a game-changer. Defenders cannot afford to play deep against him, as he can turn almost any hit into extra bases. For instance, few players would advance to second base on such a low line drive, but Scott’s speed makes it possible. Just take a look at this play:

Most players would be content with a single in this situation, but Scott’s unique speed changes the dynamics of the game. This is where his ability to capitalize on contact improvements will shine. Given that he ranks in the 13th percentile for average exit velocity, he may not possess the physical attributes to become a 20-home run player. However, he can increase his productivity by lifting more batted balls into the air, allowing them to find gaps in the outfield or drop over infielders.

Scott has also made another insightful adjustment to his stance at the plate, which complements his improved hitting strategy. He has notably moved closer to the pitcher in the batter’s box. According to Baseball Savant‘s new stance tracking, we can see how his position has changed visually. Here’s a look at his stance from 2024:

And here’s how he stands in 2025:

By standing approximately seven inches closer to the pitcher, Scott has shortened his swing length, which explains the decrease in swing speed. He is now making contact with the ball earlier in his upward swing path, leading to a notable shift in his batted ball profile. In 2024, he sent elevated contact to the opposite field 32% of the time, while this year, that rate has increased to an impressive 46.5%. Additionally, he has also improved his tendency to hit grounders towards the left side of the mound, further enhancing his offensive capabilities.

For over a decade, the baseball community has discussed the ‘pulled fly ball revolution,’ but Scott is taking a different approach. He may not have the power to achieve 15 home runs, as he peaked at nine in the minors, but his adjustments are helping him maximize his potential. By altering his stance, he has increased his hard-hit rate to 20% when hitting the ball the other way, compared to just 10% previously. This improvement stems from the mechanics of his new approach; meeting the ball earlier allows him to drive it with authority to left field, while still maintaining power on pulled balls. While he may not frequently send the ball to right field, his expected and actual results on pulled fly balls remain consistent with his new stance.

In essence, Scott has become a more challenging matchup for pitchers in the strike zone. He is no longer merely an average hitter with below-average power; instead, he has made significant adjustments in his approach. By crowding the plate, he is effectively looking to punch fastballs the other way while getting ahead of secondary pitches before they can break.

It’s important to note that I don’t anticipate pitchers to continue avoiding Scott as they have thus far. He lacks the power needed to instill fear in opposing pitchers; even with his recent improvements, he currently possesses a substandard .112 ISO. While his line-drive doubles are an improvement from 2024, they don’t compensate for the home runs that an average major leaguer can achieve, which Scott cannot. Therefore, I foresee a shift in pitchers’ strategies as the season progresses, leading to a decrease in his walk rate.

Nevertheless, just because the early-season metrics seem unsustainable doesn’t imply that Scott’s approach is flawed. On the contrary, his strategy appears to be quite astute. He doesn’t need to become the next undersized batter maximizing his power potential through pulled fly balls. If he can maintain a below-average offensive profile with on-base skills, he could become a borderline All-Star due to his exceptional defensive and baserunning abilities. If he can hover around league-average performance at the plate, he’s likely to achieve All-Star status. So, the next time you watch Scott play, pay special attention to the left-center field area—if this season’s performance is any indication, that’s where he excels.