After 28 games, Alvarez’s performance has been below expectations, with a batting line of .219/.316/.354, which pales in comparison to last year’s outstanding .308/.392/.567. His current wRC+ has plummeted by 81 points, marking the fourth largest decline among players who had 300 plate appearances in the previous season and a minimum of 80 this season. This sharp drop-off highlights the struggles he is facing as he attempts to regain his form:

What could be the reason behind Alvarez’s struggles? Interestingly, he is actually making harder contact compared to the previous years, at least when evaluating based on average exit velocity. However, average exit velocity alone does not tell the complete story, as it can be misleading:

Although Alvarez’s raw exit velocity has seen an uptick, a concerning trend is evident: his barrel rate has decreased from the 92nd percentile to the 73rd, and his hard-hit rate has also dropped from the 93rd to the 65th. While it is still early in the season, these statistics can carry weight, as average exit velocity stabilizes after around 40 batted ball events, barrel rate stabilizes at 50 batted ball events, and hard-hit rate stabilizes at 80 batted ball events.

Upon delving into Alvarez’s Statcast data, one noteworthy observation is that, despite his average launch angle and groundball and fly ball rates remaining relatively stable compared to last year, he has been under-hitting 37% of his batted balls, resulting in launch angles that are excessively high for optimal productivity. This figure places him 10th among all qualifiers and is about 12 percentage points higher than both his career average and the league average.

Examining additional Statcast details, it becomes evident that while Alvarez has achieved a remarkable .800 slugging percentage on middle-middle pitches—an increase from .679 last year—he has only swung at 50% of these pitches, a significant drop from 79% last year. His performance against four-seamers has also drastically declined; after hitting .314 and slugging .541 in 2024, he now finds himself at a mere .152 average and a .273 slugging percentage this season. His swing and chase rates have remained consistent with last year’s metrics, which were slightly above his career averages, yet his decision-making appears to have regressed. According to Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric, which evaluates the quality of a hitter’s swing decisions, Alvarez has fallen from the 95th percentile in 2023 and the 91st percentile last year to just the 43rd percentile this year.

Alvarez’s perspective on the situation reflects his competitive nature, as he does not take solace in the Statcast metrics that suggest he is generally on the right track. As reported by Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara, when a journalist pointed out that he is hitting the ball hard, Alvarez responded emphatically: “Outs.” When asked if he felt his swing was mechanically sound, he stated, “I could tell you that it’s good, but if the results are not there, then it’s not good. We’re just trying to figure it out right now.”

In the same interview, Alvarez dismissed manager Joe Espada’s assertion that he is close to breaking out, stating, “Until the numbers go up, there’s nothing close.” It’s worth noting that Alvarez is not the only player struggling below replacement level at this point in the season. Among the 165 batting title qualifiers, 38 (23%) are at or below a 0.0 WAR, and at the 80-plate appearance threshold, that percentage rises to 26%. This article aims to highlight five other notable players who are also experiencing difficulties, four of whom are referenced in the wRC+ table above. These athletes are all established talents who have faced rocky starts; three were All-Stars last year, and three signed significant free-agent contracts during the last offseason, with one player securing a deal worth nine figures. The selection criteria focused on players who achieved at least 3.0 WAR in 300 plate appearances last year and have met the 80-plate appearance threshold this season; while I was stringent regarding the requirement for negative WAR marks, I have made one noteworthy exception. However, there are numerous players who could fit into this discussion, and I will present the ones mentioned here in alphabetical order.

Assessing Willy Adames’ Performance with the Giants (71 wRC+, -0.4 WAR)

Willy Adames enjoyed a career year at the perfect time. In 2024, he reached personal bests in home runs (32), steals (21), and WAR (4.8), while nearly matching his previous year’s wRC+ (119). His slash line of .251/.331/.462 marked a significant improvement over a subpar 2023 season (.217/.310/.407, 94 wRC+), allowing him to hit free agency at an opportune moment, ultimately signing a seven-year contract worth $182 million with the San Francisco Giants.

However, Adames’ transition to the West Coast has not yielded positive results; his performance has been detrimental to a team that has started the season strong at 19-12. His current stats reflect a disappointing .208/.292/.301, with a barrel rate that has decreased from 12% to 8.9%. While his average exit velocity of 88.6 mph is consistent with last year, and his hard-hit rate of 43.3% is slightly improved, his expected slugging percentage has dipped from .461 to .388, indicating he is underperforming relative to his potential. Historically, Adames has had a significant reverse platoon split, with a 117 wRC+ against righties and a 91 wRC+ against lefties; this year, however, he has struggled dramatically against lefties, posting a .103/.163/.103 line (-21 wRC+) in 43 plate appearances, while performing much better against righties with a .259/.351/.395 stat line (113 wRC+).

Adames’ difficulties are not limited to his offensive output; his defensive metrics have also taken a hit. Last year, he experienced a drastic decline in his defensive performance, recording a drop from 12 FRV and 8 DRS in 2023 to 0 FRV and -16 DRS in 2024. In just one month of this season, he has already accumulated -4 FRV and -7 DRS. While one might argue that this small sample size is not indicative, it is concerning, especially given the previous year’s troubling metrics. I wonder if the challenge lies in adjusting to playing alongside third baseman Matt Chapman, a five-time Gold Glove winner.

Evaluating Alec Bohm’s Struggles with the Phillies (45 wRC+, -0.4 WAR)

Alec Bohm has yet to replicate the success he found during his rookie season in 2020, which was limited to just 44 games. Nevertheless, he has evolved into a reliable player for the Philadelphia Phillies, improving his defense and providing solid offensive contributions. Last year, he was selected for his first All-Star team while achieving career highs in WAR (3.5) and wRC+ (115), batting .280/.332/.448 with 15 home runs.

Currently, Bohm finds himself struggling with a .221/.252/.274 batting line. Known for his aggressive hitting style and impressive contact abilities, he has reduced his swinging strike rate from 7.6% to 6%. However, he is now striking out more frequently at a rate of 17.6%, up from 14.2%, and is walking only 2.6% of the time, which is roughly four percentage points below his average. His SEAGER score has plummeted from the 72nd percentile to the 29th, indicating that when he does swing, he is not making contact on pitches where he could do the most damage.

This decline in decision-making is reflected in his increased groundball rate, which has surged from 46% to 50.5%, while his fly ball rate has decreased substantially. His average launch angle has dropped from 9.8 degrees to 5.4 degrees. Although his exit velocity has improved to 91.3 mph, his barrel rate of 8.6% and hard-hit rate of 49.5% are not translating into positive results, as he has only mustered five extra-base hits and has not yet hit a home run. He has also experienced some bad luck, as he is currently 124 points shy of his expected slugging percentage of .398.

Monitoring Gunnar Henderson’s Progress with the Orioles (91 wRC+, 0.1 WAR)

While technically not below replacement level, Gunnar Henderson has only recently managed to rise above the threshold. He was included in this discussion because he posted an impressive 2024 WAR of 8.0, ranking fourth in the majors, despite currently being near zero. Henderson’s current batting line of .228/.268/.413 represents a significant decline from last year’s .281/.364/.529 (155 wRC+). However, things could have been worse; just a week ago, he was struggling with a .203/.247/.377 line (73 wRC+), before embarking on a six-game hitting streak, during which three of his seven hits went for extra bases.

It is important to note that Henderson missed a substantial portion of the Grapefruit League season due to an intercostal strain suffered on February 27. He began the regular season on the injured list and did not make his debut until April 4, which was the Orioles’ eighth game of the season. Since returning, he has been hitting the ball hard—when he makes contact. In his first ten games, he barreled only one ball out of 26 batted balls, but he averaged an impressive 99.3 mph on those batted balls, with a hard-hit rate of 69.2%. Unfortunately, he also struck out in 37.2% of his 43 plate appearances during that period, hinting at some rust. Presently, he has improved to a 95.7 mph average exit velocity, placing him in the 99th percentile, and his hard-hit rate of 56.9% is in the 95th percentile. However, his barrel rate has declined to 9.2%, which is only in the 53rd percentile, down from the 76th last year. Essentially, he is hitting too many ground balls (50.8%, an increase of four points from last year) and striking out too often (27.8%, up 5.7 points from last year) while walking just 5.2% of the time, which is less than half of last year’s rate. Nevertheless, he is trending positively in most areas; of all the players mentioned, I believe he is the most likely to have turned a corner.

Analyzing Joc Pederson’s Performance with the Rangers (12 wRC+, -0.8 WAR)

Joc Pederson had an impressive season as a platoon designated hitter for the Diamondbacks, posting a .275/.393/.515 line with 23 home runs and achieving career bests in OBP and wRC+ (151), while contributing 3.0 WAR. The Texas Rangers signed him to a two-year, $37 million contract, hoping to replicate that success, but his performance has been far from it. After registering his first hit as a Ranger in the second game, he endured an astonishing 0-for-41 slump, with only three walks during that stretch. He went three weeks without a hit, finally breaking the drought with a pinch-hit double against the A’s Mason Miller on April 23. Recently, he achieved his first multi-hit game of the season; however, his overall statistics reflect a dismal .108/.205/.176 through 84 plate appearances, ranking among the worst in the league.

Even during his hitting streak, Pederson averaged 91.5 mph on his batted ball events, but he struck out 31% of the time, with a staggering 57.7% of those batted balls resulting in grounders. His overall groundball rate of 51.9% is over 11 points higher than his career average, while his barrel rate of 5.5% is approximately half of his usual rate. Additionally, his pulled air rate has declined by about 10 points from last year and is four points below his career average. He is chasing pitches less frequently than usual at 23.3%, but his SEAGER score has dropped from the 83rd percentile to the 49th. Recently, he has shown signs of life, with five hits in his last 16 at-bats, three of which were for extra bases, including the double off of Miller, but it may take time for his statistics to improve significantly.

Investigating Anthony Santander’s Performance with the Blue Jays (66 wRC+, -0.4 WAR)

Similar to Willy Adames, Anthony Santander capitalized on a career year, setting personal bests in home runs (44), WAR (3.3), and wRC+ (129) while hitting .235/.308/.506 with the Orioles and earning his first All-Star selection before entering free agency. He leveraged this performance into a lucrative five-year, $92.5 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays, yet his offensive results have not transitioned well to the new team. Despite hitting a three-run homer against the Red Sox recently, bringing his total to four home runs, Santander is managing a lackluster .175/.258/.316 batting line.

Similar to Bohm, Santander is struggling to find his rhythm at the plate. His groundball rate has surged from 30.8% to 38.1%, while his average launch angle has plummeted from 22.7 degrees to 15.2. His barrel rate has drastically decreased from 11.7% to 6%, and his expected slugging percentage has dropped from .445 to .327.

It is important to note that Santander has a history of slow starts throughout his nine-year career, as he has recorded an 82 wRC+ in March and April, compared to a significantly better 111 wRC+ for the remainder of the season. A particularly alarming trend emerges when examining his performance against four-seam fastballs; in 2023, he managed a .263 average and .556 slugging percentage against these pitches, but this year, he has plummeted to a .128 average and .231 slugging percentage, with his whiff rate on four-seamers rising from 21.5% to 34.1%. Furthermore, his combined performance against changeups and sliders has been dismal, going 3-for-31, even though he had previously handled them reasonably well last year.

There are certainly numerous other players who could fit into this narrative of early-season struggles, including some mentioned in the wRC+ table above, such as Diaz and Ortiz, both of whom play key defensive positions. The Rangers’ Marcus Semien, whom I reviewed last week, has recorded hits in his last five games, increasing his wRC+ from 17 to 47 (.182/.258/.245), largely due to facing the struggling A’s pitching staff. For many of these players, it may simply be a matter of improving their statistics against weaker pitching opponents.